Changing tides
Much has been made of the recent announcements pertaining to Vaxinia and Azer Cel. The Vaxinia announcement was succinct and to the point, revealing clear and concise information pertaining to the ongoing (MAST) Trial. This announcement was well received by IMU shareholders and the investment community at large, no doubt encouraging those sitting on the sidelines, or indeed unaware of Imugene’s value proposition, to dip their toe in the water as it were. Conversely the subsequent Azer Cel announcement left a lot to the imagination, including enrolment figures, end points and trial objectives. It goes without saying despite the product advancement, Azer Cel news once again led to a retracement in the IMU share price. Another opportunity missed to explain the financial opportunity associated in producing potentially the worlds first FDA approved allogenic therapy.
So where to now? Obviously Vaxinia is the biggest game in town, with news on the remainder of the initial cohort patients still pending. But stepping away from Vaxinia Imugene need to use these few days, including the webinar on Thursday, to provide an extensive review of their overall pipeline, in particular PD1 Vaxx. The continual rehashing and slight re jigging of existing slides in their presentations is looking tired and rather underwhelming, to say the least. They need to provide investors with comprehensive data, not just snippets of information from one or two patients here and there. Such detailed information engenders and instills confidence in the market, negating the need for continuous questions, uncertainty and conjecture. Look to the recently sold Seagen, who provides patient success stories to sing their song, or their OV competitor Replimune, who I have discussed as an excellent example on how to script a comprehensive market (i.e., Nasdaq or ASX) announcement.
Imugene is a hot commodity at present. It’s not simply Vaxinia that’s turning things from cold to hot. Recent share volumes traded have been staggering. Off the back of these developments I’d be encouraging a Roche Genentech style deal to provide Imugene with additional clinical trial funding, facilitating the dollars required to take their ground breaking technology to market. Roche could acquire 20, 40 or even 49% for a reasonable stake in IMU upfront, with a view to outlaying the hefty balance down the track, if and when approvals and trial successes are realised. Imugene may even choose to give Roche first right of refusal when it comes to whether or not they fancy an outright takeover, as they subsequently did when it came to Genentech, over a decade ago now. Obviously Imugene may reserve the right not to sell, if they so choose. Imugene could then increase their patient intake immeasurably, producing more and more meaningful data within the scope of their existing pipeline. Azer cel CF/33 clinical trial combinations, a Vaxinia Renovox combination, why even PD1 Her Vaxx combinations spring to mind. Adequate funding from an experienced partner alleviates the need to out license if not sell products individually and negates the need for more and more dilution as the pipeline progresses.
Is it too early to commence such discussions with a large marketing partner? Absolutely not, given the ongoing safety profile of all Imugene’s products, together with signs of efficacy in the treatment of cancer patients in the lucrative solid tumour market. If I were on the business side of the Imugene desk I would be engaging with all the leading players to secure the future of what is set to be game changing oncology. When its comes to their financial destiny Imugene now need to create it, not sit back and wait for things to happen. They hold all the cards, they are driving the bus, they simply require a road map to take them there. Without the broad sales and marketing platform of Big Pharma they are in need of a partner. But it must be an amenable partnership incepted on their terms, rather than a hostile negotiation at the behest of an aggressive suitor. Hence the need to commence discussions now, to lay the foundations for a solid and mutually beneficial relationship for years to come, as could be said of the Roche Genentech alliance. I wouldn’t be holding back and waiting for the waves to wash over me if I was sitting behind the financial desk at imugene.
The next few days must set aside the confusion, miscommunication and at times disquiet over Imugene’s position when it comes to clinical trial developments, future funding and ongoing development plans. Shareholders have been carried from pillar to post in recent years, and until recently the majority were baying for blood at the forthcoming AGM. CF33 Vaxinia has once again carried the can for a company that has been tardy to say the least when it comes to delivering a commercial road map from which shareholders can traverse forward. Now may be the time for company management to provide such direction, in order to realise real value for their beleaguered shareholder base. It is an excellent idea to introduce Imugene’s new medical personnel to the public at large, highlighting the clinical developments currently in play. But it’s what’s playing out on the commercial side of the IMU coin that carries most weight in what is a hungry at times over zealous market, with an appetite for financial data and monetary outcomes.
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when require Opinions only
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