Wasa /others
The facts are the price Big Pharma is willing to pay has just gone up more than considerably this year. i also looked at the recent AstraZeneca- Daiichi Sankyo deal earlier in the year for around US$6 billion for an Antibody Drug Conjugate that targets Her2 positive.
Again done prior to completion of Ph2 and given an accelerated approval program. It is clear that interim results do not have to demonstrate anything close to a 100% cure, but rather just a meaningful extension of life than the SOC. Doubling of existing PFS months as a minimum.
But why did Gilead pay 3 times as much as Astrazeneca for a similar designed product?? Because they must have a very good idea Trodelvy will work for multiple cancer types, TNBC, Bladder, Pancreatic and /or it will produce good results in combination with something else in their pipeline.i read one analyst suggested peak sales for Trodelvy could reach Us$4.5 billion after 5 to 7 years.
So Hervax has the potential to do the same, and will be safer and less expensive to make. PD1 Vax on its own or in combination could produce more effective and safer results than Keytruda and others for multiple cancer types.CF33 ,armed or unarmed with a payload , could have even greater potential for treating the worst cancer types with no existing cure, not just TNBC, but multiple types of the most difficult/impossible to cure. All represent a move away from chemo, whereas antibody drug conjugates are still using chemo but in a highly targeted way unleashed and activated directly at the cancer cells.
It is an exercise in complete guessswork what peak sales could look like for HerVax, Pd1Vax and Cf33 , on their own or in combinations.
What is not guesseork is this : our current market cap of US$150 million is "the markets" way of saying we have a less than 1% chance of being bought out for the same price as Immunomedics. Maybe a year or 3 ago that might have been a fair assessment, now its just wrong, wrong, wrong.
Lets put that at a very modest 10% chance for the entire pipeline, fair value price would now be 52c . If each of the pipeline products individually have a 10% chance of achieving that type of price and bought out independently, the price NOW should be $1.56 .
Perhaps that is too premature for our novice market to digest whilst CF33 and Pd1 vax are not in humans just yet, but thats about to change.
So lets look at it from another more tangible angle : If HerVax in Ph2, which has now been running for 19 months, can increase the PFS from 100 days to 300 days or more, as the median improvement , or the benchmark for greater than 50% of all participants , the probability of a Gilead type deal surely would be considered a 50% chance. The probability of an accelerated approval program would also be greater than 50%. Equates to $2.60 on fair valuation. PFS of 400 dayz or greater for 25% of patients or more would be even more compelling odds.
Have said it over and over, the current " sum of the parts " valuation is pure madness. The market can not look squarely , or price fairly, at the de-risking that has already been achieved. AH ,YF and LC probably wouldnt know whether to laugh or cry if someone suggested our pipeline has a less than 10 % chance of success.
all JIMHO, so get ready for a rebound. Why would anybody wait for sub 4.5 if the probability/success/ valuation equation based off the Gilead benchmark puts us a minimum 10X higher , and even greater still as a Big Pharma deal comes closer to fruition.
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