I have mentioned in previous posts i don’t believe the ASX market has attributed any value whatsoever to CF33 at current prices, or even at 10-12c for that matter.
We have a super impressive pipeline . “Game changing, paradigm shift, potentially disruptive to market leading blockbuster monoclonal antibodies and chemotherapy” , are the things being said.
A sum of the parts valuation today by any metric simply can not reasonably equal 3.5 for what has already been demonstrated to work!
HerVax + PD1 Vax+ CF33+ Mimitopes =US$ 100million!Seriously?
With HerVax the original Imugene product already advanced to halfway through Ph2 this is what the market is primarily focusing on and attributing current value.
How about attributing some realistic value for CF33.
Just look closely at the Oncolytic Virus landscape.
As four starting points ;
Firstly, the original OV, TVec,was acquired by Amgen
in 2011 for US$1 billion at the Ph2 trial stage.,US$425 million up front and another US$575million in development and sales milestones.
Two years later Ph3 results in Melanomashowed TVEC led to complete or partial response lasting continuously for at least six months—a “durable response rate” (DRR)—of 16% of patients tested with the drug candidate during the trial, versus 2% in patients treated with GM-CSF. (. See here for details
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/translational-medicine/amgen-melanoma-drug-meets-phase-iii-endpoint/
Secondly, Cavatak, developed by Viralytics, was acquired by Merck for A$504million, presumably to be used in combination with Keytruda treating Melanoma.
Thirdly, Six months ago pre clinical Turnstone Biologics was acquired by Takeda for US$1 billion,Us$120 million upfront, $900 million on milestones. In the deal Turnstone keeps 50% of all future profits.
Turnstone’s OV is very much an apples for apgples comparison with CF33 with the same mechanism of attack , the same virus family used, but with a different method of composition.
“RIVAL-01 is Turnstone’s lead candidate consisting of the vaccinia virus backbone encoding three potent immunomodulators, Flt3 ligand, anti-CTLA-4 antibody, and IL-12 cytokine, specifically designed to work together to drive immune activity and re-program the microenvironment to be best suited for tumor eradication. When the vaccinia virus enters and replicates in cancer cells throughout the body, the transgenes are expressed. The resulting local production of these therapeutics at the site of tumors add to the inherent oncolytic and microenvironment modifying properties of the virus to form a powerful multi-modal attack on the disease."
Sounds very much like CF33...See that, PreClinical too, just like CF33, but that didn’t worry Takeda signing on for US$1 billion.
Now, 4th and finally, Taking a closer look at Nasdaq listed Replimune. (Repl)which was founded by the samepeople that developed TVEC and is still in early development stage, but ahead of CF33.
The similarities between CF33 and Rp1 are very close. We are using a chimeric vaccinia pox virus they are using a HerpesSimplex virus. We are arming the virus with an antiPD-1 and they are using a similar approach, arming RP1 with Nivolumab, commonly known as Opdivo.
Both CF33 and Rp1 are are designed to fight cancer in the same two ways:
- Directly kill tumors into which they are injected
- Activate the immune system to kill cancer cells anywhere in the body
Professor Yuman Fong explained in his YouTube presentation last year how the vaccina pox virus was far more potent than HS, how in pre clinical trials it could kill a larger number of cancer types , and have a much higher success rate than TVec , whereas HS has only succesful in melanoma . In combination with a PD1 it could be even far more effective in multiple cancer types.
Click here. (20 mins clip)
Replimune is 12 -18 months or so ahead of Imugene with its Ph 2 trial underway targeting melanoma , non melanoma skin cancers, and bladder cancer.
Replimune raised just over Us$100 million in July 2018 on IPO.
Replimune currently has a market cap of US$ 740 million, $20.15 per share, so over $1 billion Aussie.
Replimune currently has broker research /price targets of between $22 -$30 per share from analysts at JPMorgan, Roth Capital, Wainwright, Barclays .Ie median valuation of US$870 million
Replimune has NOT got any other pipeline IP product that attributes value to its current Market Cap, although hopeful of modifications of RP1 to Rp2 and RP3 tinkering with it in different ways inserting different genes.
see their recent announcement for details
https://ir.replimune.com/news-releases/news-release-details/replimune-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2020
Yesterday Replimune announced interim data for Rp1 for melanoma....Yes the OV is showing some excellent results so far. Some complete responses and patients still alive who otherwise would have died.https://ir.replimune.com/static-files/def39b44-9f58-4fbd-8a36-2f96f628519a
See here for full information ,Interim data announced yesterday
Today Replimune is already valued at over A$1billion, Tvec was sold for $1 billion, 9 years ago as a first generation OV.Turnstone was partnered for 50% for US$1billion PreClinical .And here we are at Imugene with our lead product HerVaxalready justifying more than our current market cap of A$150 million .
Which therefore leaves CF33 carrying a market value of ZERO!! ... even at 10c still Zero !!
So clearly there is a good deal of catching up to do for the Imugene share price if CF33 is rated a chance of success, and why shouldn’t it be.It’s certainly not inferior in any way to TVec, Cavatak.Rival01, or RP1.Yuman Fong will argue it is superior on many levels.A PreClinical buy out of CF33 for the same price as Turnstone equates to 58.8 cents for Imugene .As of the 4th quarter we will no longer be PreClinical.
That could easily justify a doubling of the price very quickly upon demonstrating safety and compelling results.
Based on all of the above, it is not surprising City of Hope & Yuman Fong already had Big Pharmaloudly knocking at the door before Paul Hopper arrived.
So, at what point does the ASX market begin to factor in some value for CF33 into Imugene’s share price thbat brings it closer to REPL plus adding some genuine value recognising it is just not targeting melanoma or a single cancer type, but rather will be aimed at multiple cancer types.
On Investigational New Drug approval? On dosing of first CF33 trial patients, or upon first demonstration of safety? On Ph2 data ? Or totally asleep at the wheel until a Big Pharma deal is done?
To catch up with Replimune in trial results we obviously need to be 6 to 12 months down the track with first safety data delivered.
Yet the market won’t simply take Imugene from 3c today , instantly to 25c at some point a certain box gets ticked at a random moment in time.
Incremental value re- rating should logically see the share price work its way higher in gradual steps recognising and rewarding positive achievements along the way.Global Awareness of Imugene has barely even begun, (although there are signs of life on the USA OTC pink sheets with Imu trading at a healthy premium) and many Biotech fund managers are prevented from investing until significant data is released. This is going to change in the coming weeks and months.
Assuming the market can figure out HerVax should already be worth between 10 and 15c per share, taking Axel Hoos’ earlier comments on value, plus with safety and efficacy having already been met at the Ph2 halfway stage therefore justifying a further boost,( see announcement May5th) the market should also be able to add on for CF33 at least 3c per share of value now, another 2to 3 c on IND approval, another 5c on Ph 1 trial safety demonstrated with some indication of how well the virus has done its job, another 3 to 5c on Ph2 commencement, more for Ph2interim safety and efficacy data , etc, etc , etc...
Then factor in some value for the PD-1 Vax as well which has its own genuine merit, either as a stand alone or combination therapy given the success of the immune checkpoint inhibitors which it replicates. The worlds leading immunooncologists are all suggesting combination therapies will yield the best results for hard to treat cancers, so how much more valuable is Imugene if it can combine its own HerVax or CF33 with its own anti PD1? What a package!
Then factor in some realistic value for the Mimitopes platform.Clearly the market has no understanding that this technology gives Imugene the ability to copy the epitopes of different types of cancer surface cell proteins and then use these to create vaccines to trigger B Cell antibodies for many different cancer types.Is this not going to upset some of those big name drugcompanies that have been making billions of dollars annually from monoclonal antibody drugs which this technology can render obsolete?
Twelve to eighteen months from now a “sum of the parts” valuation by a very cautious ASX market for all four assets could easily look more like 15+15+10+10 =50c
The hard work has been done, the data and recognition to support that valuation is now tantalisingly close.
Mind boggling absurd to think that at that priceit is still a mere fraction of what Gilead recently paid for an immunooncology acquisition or some of the other multi billion dollar deals that have been done by Big Pharma. Or another way to look at it, at 50c they would be paying less than Takeda did for Turnstone and getting 3 additional highly prized assets thrown in the deal for free. Can’t see our directors giving half the company away for nothing.
Go Team Imugene, this is a genuine multi - multi bagger in the making. Re visiting November high price of 6.3 is not far away. New highs reflecting a still very cheap, yet very reasonable and conservative valuation for “the sum of the parts” are also not far away.
