@Footmax Thank you for your post. I do think though you need to remember that company structures, shareholders and biotech companies change form frequently. To assume the status quo stays the same while the world waits for you “to do your thing,” is rather ambitious, to say the least. Unfortunately, as much of an IMU bull as I am, sometimes you have to call it how it is…
Any talk of TO is probably premature anyway. IMU will need a couple of really outstanding announcements before BP trigger any overt attempts to connect with IMU.
I would think a takeover at this stage would be more likely from a hedge fund, large Asian institution, private equity firm or sophisticated investor(s), than BP. They are more likely to act before announcements, why on earth would they wait to pay a higher price?
In 2023 Private equity (PE) deal activity continues to accelerate as firms get greater visibility into interest rate trajectories and macro volatility begins to recede. In the third quarter, PE firms announced deals valued at US$101b — roughly consistent with the first two quarters of the year. However, the number of deals continues to climb substantially from what now appears to be the Q1 trough — sponsors inked 93 deals of US$100m and above in Q3, a 63% increase from the first quarter
In any case, the way the SP has somewhat languished, any TO is not currently in the interest of shareholders. Lots of comments on HC about 30, 40 and 60 cent SP for a TO are somewhat insulting if IMU paves the way for a unique and effective cancer treatment.
Takeovers often aren’t in the best interest of shareholders long term. But takeover merchants and large private equity players rarely give much thought to existing shareholders. Their prime motive is to make money. Talk to former Channel 9 or 10, or even Origin Energy shareholders about it.
I am always loathe to even give predictions on the SP - that crystal ball can be shattered by a single announcement. However, surely IMU (with the qualification that results need to be very positive) is worth much more than some posters have indicated - and maybe, IMU could even go it alone with the right partnerships/commercial deals.
That’s assuming they are in a position to make decisions for themselves. At the low market cap existing ATM unless Imugene start to commercialise their assets in some way shape or form, and stop focusing purely on R&D and science, they are in grave danger of someone stepping in and commercialising their assets for them. A shrewd operator could come in, spin off one or two products in their pipeline, or maybe even one of their platforms, to cover their acquisition costs, and move on into the sunset holding the jewel in the crown, Vaxinia.
I have very serious reservations that the IMU management would even be tempted by any offers and would consider them very low ball. Shareholders sentiment on HC would indicate the same feeling.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Imugene’s broking advisers have long been sellers of the stock. So to have senior management at times. On November 6 despite extraordinary results in a Vaxinia Announcement the selling started going off at 15 cents. If $1.50 was on the table I’m not sure management would be in a position to hold on
The IMU journey has really only started - and we have some way to go before the real value of IMU's research will show the true promise of what it can deliver. I believe we have 5 trials going on at the moment.
That’s exactly the reason someone would want to take over now. Why wait until each trial reaches its maturity date?
Having said that, I think the pointy end of research will make itself known by the end of 2024 - not really that far ahead.
You may be right, but is Imugene going to be around to see it?
So, 2024 is setting itself up as a very interesting year for IMU. Our conversations 112 months from now could be very different than they are now.
IMU doesn’t have enough money to take their drugs to market. They have not suggested they even want to. This leaves them with one of three scenarios’
- Out licensing of product(s) (if possible), a
- A partnership (with a distribution and marketing player) or
- An outright takeover (hostile or otherwise)
With respect to:
1.Out licensing - Management has failed to deliver any form of out licensing deal for any of their products thus far, so to assume that was going to happen any time soon would be presumptuous in the least.
2. Partnerships - Well the only partnerships they have been able to deliver are supply agreements in which they supply the use of their products to third parties who stand to gain more than they do for the collaboration, for nothing in the way of monetary remuneration, ie. Arovella, and
3. The failure of management to place a business and commercial emphasis around their IP IMO has lead to a large disconnect between the intrinsic value of their IP , and the prevailing, as you note languishing SP. Therefore ATM I would suggest this is the most likely outcome at present, unless the SP can be turned around in early 2024.
Taking all things into consideration I do hope much of what you say is right @Footmax, but realistically speaking unless the SP moves north quickly, 2024 may be the year IMU sinks, when in all reality it should have been swimming.
Time waits for No One ….
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only
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