"Point 2: The purchase by Merck under a scheme of arrangement...

"Point 2: The purchase by Merck under a scheme of arrangement for Viralytics was around $502 million basically for the one product,

IMU as a package would, IMO have to be at least 5 times this in today's dollars."

Hi Hawkbar33,

In relation to your suggestion IMU would have to be worth at least 5 times AU$502 million (i.e. AU$2.5 billion), IMU recently provided guidance the initial indication they are going after for Azer-cel, DLBCL CAR T relapsed patients, has a potential to achieve US$2.5 billion per annum (based on total addressable market, which is total number of treatable patients x price at 100% market share).
A few knowledgeable people around here have indicated valuations should be based on a 4-5x multiple of sales, so US$10-12.5 billion (AU$15-18.75 billion).

Third line DLBCL is a very small market and pales in comparison to the size of the market that could be targeted by Vaxinia &/or onCARlytics in combo with Azer-cel. Like you, I'm making up numbers here: the market for Vaxinia &/or onCARlytics could be at least 100 times as large, but most likely much larger... obviously it is still very early days in the Vaxinia and onCARlytics clinical trials and we're a long way from getting a realistic idea of the potential market size, but suffice to say, you may like to consider revising your "5 times AU$502 million" guess to 37 times $502 million in 2-3 years based on guidance provided by Imugene based on Azer-cel's initial registration (if successful) and 3700 times $502 million in 5-10 years based on my guess of Vaxinia and onCARlytics potential (if successful).

...and there's a couple of the problems why Imugene is currently only valued at around US$575 million. 1. people really don't understand how large the potential market sizes are and 2. the gap between today and when it will become abundantly clear what that potential market size is. So, the US$10 billion to US$1.5 trillion question is, at what stage does the share price start to reflect the potential? Most likely when people see the earnings potential translate into actual earnings so they can feel certain about what they're getting, although I suspect it will start to move upwards much sooner but not to its full potential until we see those actual earnings.