Hi Joe,
8 billion after options are exercised. Yes that is a lot of shares, however that is really an irrelevant consideration. When you purchase a stock you own a % of the company. The company is valued by its Market Cap, not its share price, so technically you own a % of the?% MC. So regardless of the number of shares on issue (SOI) your ownership % does not change without the total share register getting smaller or larger. If you offset any dilution from future CR's buy purchasing the same '% of your holding' as the same '% of increase in the register', you are not diluted and thus don't loose any value.
Regarding the future CR: this is the biotechnology space. Without new capital injections regularly companies die. In my opinion it's a forgone conclusion that there will be another CR in the next 12 months if IMU doesn't make a commercial deal that brings in an upfront payment of some sort, or if the share price does not get high enough by August to motivate IMUOD option conversion.
The real questions that you should answer if looking to invest in Imugene is:
- What are the chances of successful trials given the data released to date?
- What are the value of the markets that Imugene is targeting?
- What does that mean to you in terms of Risk:Reward?
For each of us here, we likely have a different answer to those questions.
You are hearing much about Bile Duct cancer atm because we just received fast track approval from the FDA as a result of the safety and unmet need in the market from the virus(cf33) trial in the mid-size doses. The cf33 (Vaxxinia) trial is open to all solid tumours and the data shows itis having similar positive effects across all indications. Maturation of data will further confirm or adjust this picture. However, it appears so far that Imugene's tactic appears to be aiming at unmet needs for faster approvals, and then to expand into more indications, similar to the model of Keytruda.
Azercel is likely much closer to market. It is also targeting an unmet need, and also appears to show great efficacy and safety to date. After a brief confirmatory trial, the next step is a registrational trial if FDA approved.
There is a second virus strain just entered patient trials that is even more exciting than the naked virus, first in class best in class. This has the potential to open up the entire solid tumour market to cd19 therapies. IF this becomes approved therapy, Imugene is looking at a slice of the solid tumour market worth roughly 400 billion per year, with first mover advantage and little to no competition.
Pd1vaxx is also progressing well and is currently making waves in the UK.
Hervaxx is in the out-licensing stage.
All company announcements since our highs have either been neutral or positive, with the exception of our chairman selling shares to buy a house. Fundamentally, this company is A1 with its progress so far.
From a technical charting perspective, the scene is we are a volcano about to pop it's top. We don't know exactly when, but like a volcano all the signs are there.
Should you invest? That's your decision. I'm content with my decision and for me personally I believe that this investment will see me out.
