IMU (ASX) Why IMU is a multi multi bagger

Originally posted by Harry58: ↑

The last two weeks has certainly presented an emotional roller-coaster for many Imugene shareholders.
The majority in my view are optimistic that the science will deliver positive outcomes for cancer sufferers and ultimately financial reward.

The problem for many is their perception of timing ... this is a speculative stock that requires patient capital. And of course as the saying goes, speculation leads to expectation which (if not met) can result in frustration.

An understanding of time frames in clinical trials will assist in setting expectations.
The company however, does not assist in this regard when they state in the MAST trial announcements that "the trial commenced in May 2022 and is anticipated to run for approximately 24 months".
Any punter would correctly interpret this to mean that the trial will finish in May 2024.
But no, according to the clinical trial information the estimated trial completion date has always been recorded as 31st January 2025.

In the last fortnight shareholders have been treated to no less than 5 price sensitive announcements.

3/4/2024 - Imugene to present at 2024 Cholangialcarcinoma Conference
4/4/2024 - Oncolytic Virotherapy CF33 Patent granted in China.
8/4/2024 - Vaxinia and HER-vaxx featured at AACR annual meeting.
15/4/2024 - Bile Tract Cancer Study opens after MAST High Dose Trial clearance.
16/4/2024 - Imugene and Kincel Bio Announce Strategic Partnership

This exceeded my expectations but as is the case for many of our price sensitive announcements the SP suffered adding more pain, anguish and frustration for shareholders.

Clearly a reset of expectations is required ....
the Vaxinia MAST trial has just cleared the 5th dosing cohort in IT Monotherapy at 3x10^8 without any safety issues and is commencing an expansion study cohort of 10 patients in an unmet need of Bile Tract Cancer. And of course there is the forthcoming read-out of the Azer-cel confirmation trial due this quarter, not to mention the OnCARlytic combination trial that has commenced on the 11th March 2024.

The development and progress of clinical trials under the leadership of Leslie and her team has been amazing and deserves full recognition.

And finally I want to acknowledge the patients in our trials who are fighting this horrible disease that hopefully our virotherapies can deliver improved outcomes.

In another post I noted that in the announcement for Expansion into Bile Tract Cancer, the cancer indications for the cleared 5th Monotherapy IT cohort were reported as "thymic carcinoma, triple negative breast cancer and cholangiocarcinoma".

And in light of comments made by Rob from Brisbane aka Rock_Robster on the Colon Cancer Support Group who commenced his dosing regimen on the 19th March for liver cancer at St Vincents in Melbourne it would appear that he is in the 6th dosing cohort of 1x10^9.
Rob has recently completed his third scheduled treatment on day 21 of his first cycle and is doing well.

GLTAH - Go Team Imugene
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People don't care about these announcements. Data drives commercial outcomes, and that's what people should be focused on.

Phase 1 is a critical time to evaluate the efficacy of a compound. Here is an example of a strong OV therapy that is on the path to approval for a single indication. Phase 1 data of CG0070 demonstrates complete repsonse rates in 48.6% of all patients, 63.6% in multidose cohorts and 81.8% in patients with borderline to high retinoblastoma phosphorylation. Wait til you see what lifting the dose did for efficacy...

They completed this study in 2012. It is now 2024 and they are still conducting studies, with some incredible data supporting efficacy not limited to this.

With investigational new drugs like this as the benchmark, maybe people are starting to realise that an oncology company in Australia with a failed P2 drug and a P1 oncolytic viral therapy that has so far demonstrated inter- and intra-individual inconsistency and little to no efficacy in >90% of patients (that also forms the backbone of three clinical programs) may not be worth $600M AUD. Since cholangiocarcinoma is rare and OV therapy market is extremely small, maybe investors are starting to think there is not much upside from $600M or maybe that there is just a lot of risk. Many lines of evidence support my contention that IMU is very high risk. I can understand selling until ~2c.

Treating cancer is easy, the more cytotoxic drug you give to humans always means better outcomes - SMH.

Patiently awaiting more data to analyse.

Global OV market averaged off data I could find