Yes, you're right, it's a bit crude. Someone here mentioned typical buyout figures for a drug are around 4-5 times estimated peak(maximum?) sales. So, I used that crude estimate... $2.5B TAM solely in DLBCL (the first target they are going after but not the only target they can go after) divided by SOI times 4 gives the $2.12 per share figure followed by the caveat that some of that will go whomever they partner with.
Perhaps something less crude might be:
TAM = US$2.5 billion ~ AU$3.9 billion. Allowing for only 60% TAM = AU$2.34 billion.
Bring that down to AU$700 million after factoring in a licencing deal where IMU gets 30% (should be able to negotiate a higher % for an approved drug).
So, we're looking at earnings of $0.096 per share.
A high P/E multiple is justified as there are more indications they can go after once initial approval is granted, not to mention going after 2nd or even 1st line/SOC approval plus whatever allowance should be made for the rest of the pipeline.
10x P/E = $0.96 per share
25x P/E = $2.40 per share
According to
Top pharmaceutical companies by P/E ratio (companiesmarketcap.com), the global
average P/E in the sector is 44.2.
44.2x P/E = $4.24 per share.
I think the main takeaway is if Azer-cel receives FDA approval the IMU SP will rise significantly in comparison to the current SP.
Perhaps you have an alternate view you would like to share on how to calculate S/P if Azer-cel is approved by the FDA?
(20min delay)