Why IMU is a multi multi bagger, page-25470

There is much talk on this thread about the Imugene share price, and the biotech sector. Posters here do tend to focus on (CHM ASX) and (RAD ASX), those being Imugene Chairman Paul Hoppers other stocks, and even (RAC ASX), that being the stock held by a few posters who frequent the thread from time to time.

This article may provide assistance to those investing in both Imugene and the biotech sector in Australia more broadly. It by no means represents a recommendation or advice, simply commentary and opinions only.

Imugene (IMU ASX) and the market

Investors in Australia’s biotech sector have many alternatives when it comes to placing their funds within the sector. When it comes to Imugene (IMU ASX), a buy signal is present from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Technically speaking traders are wary of such a pattern.

Fundamentally speaking should clinical trials return the anticipated results as forecast by company management the share price may improve in the medium term into 2025. In fact a few analysts predict price targets in the double digits if not higher. However it would have to be noted when compared to biotech alternatives the stocks recent failure to perform has many looking elsewhere to invest their capital within the sector in 2024.

The Australian biotech market - who to follow

Analysts and brokers within the Australian biotech space have strong buys on a number of the sector players. For one Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd.'s (TLX ASX) analyst rating consensus is a Strong Buy. This is based on the ratings of 5 Wall Streets Analysts. In the current month, Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6ASX) has received 4 Buy Ratings, 0 Hold Ratings, and 0 Sell Ratings Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NEU ASX) has a consensus rating of Strong Buy, which is based on 5 buy ratings, 0 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings. Whilst one I have been following for some time Actinogen Medical Limiteds (ACW ASX) technical analysis shows a strong buy rating today. Actinogen shareholder and investment follower Martin Rogers https://x.com/martinfrogers even goes as far to say that if their current clinical trial continues to trend positively the stock could go as high as 30c & $2.20 depending on the company’s future potential sales, Big Pharma's bidding offers and based on the size of other similar successful biotech companies market cap. With their Xanamem results due out in early August, many are scrambling in to take advantage of the perceived upside due to the drugs ability to improve cognition and poentially provide a frontline treatment for depression and Alzheimer’s disease patients.

Mesoblast (MSB ASX) is another in the sector given a strong buy recommendation from industry analysts. At $1.15 many see the stock progressing higher in 2024. Having fallen off a cliff share price wise in late 2021, like many others in the sector, 2024 has been a year of steady improvement for the regenerative medicine company. Whilst for those looking for a more secure biotech if not healthcare play, CSR Limited (CSR ASX) is said to have 0.27% upside potential, based on the analysts' average price target. CSR Limited has a consensus rating of Hold, which is based on 0 buy ratings, 5 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings, according to tipranks.com

Then again for those seeking even more diversity in the sector perhaps Brandon BioCatalyst, the largest life science investment fund in Australia and New Zealand could be an option. The company's website states that to date, Brandon BioCatalyst has supported more than 50 promising start-up companies, with more than 85 percent of them founded by the first investment from Brandon BioCatalyst .

Can Imugene outpace the competition?

Both Azer cel and Vaxinia should put a floor in the current Imugene (IMU ASX) share price, if their FDA approved expansionary trials go as planned. Clearly Azer cel already has the runs on the board having produced success in its recent hit out with 84 patients. But Vaxinia’s bile duct expansion could carry more weight than Azer cel for those holding IMU, as Vaxinia is linked to both Oncarlytics and Azer cel, with both platforms standing to benefit should the ongoing Vaxinia (MAST) Trial exhibit additional signs of efficacy.Recently Imugene CEO and MD Leslie Chong when speaking with Proactiv Investors expressed optimism about VAXINIA's potential in bile tract cancer, highlighting the trial's advancement to higher doses to gather key data. In November 2023, the US FDA granted fast-track designation to VAXINIA MAST for bile tract cancer, enabling closer cooperation to expedite the approval process.Although bile tract cancer is a rare and challenging disease, often responding poorly to immunotherapy, Vaxinia has been shown in the existing Phase 1 dose escalation trial to trigger strong immune responses within the bile tract cohort of patients.

The downside for Imugene (IMU ASX) is their lack of capital longer term and the company's failure to string a commercial deal together. Without a Big Pharma partner, licensing deal, supply agreement or partnership in play the company is at the mercy of their clinical trial results, which take time and cost money to perform. Without a large number of patients participating in them company management are striving to produce meaningful data on relatively small sample sizes of late stage cancer patients, which is always a challenge. That said Imugene do possess a number of experienced clinical trial specialists, from their CEO down. Therefore many are counting on the ongoing Azer cel, Vaxinia and Oncarlytics trials coming up trumps. Perhaps product founders Professor Yuman Fong and Saul Priceman MD do indeed hold the left and right bowers in the biotech space. Let's wait and see.

DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only