Why IMU is a multi multi bagger, page-26517

Well, when you consider the 2023 CAR T market data, it becomes clear that the Azer-cel market data was sifnificantly overestimated.

The market data for CAR T therapies is public information. I an effort to bolster my point, I used the 2023 revenue data from the 6 approved CAR T therapies to estimate that 8464 patients received CAR T therapies globally in 2023.



Azer-cel is targeting DLBCL auto CAR T therapy relapse patients. Roughly 65% of CAR T therapy patients are DLBCL (5501 patients), and 60-65% of those are resistant/refractory, which indicates the market size is actually roughly 3576 patients.

Therefore, based on the most recent data available for CAR T therapies, IMU management have overstated the Azer-cel DLBCL market size by 79%. I do not understand why they are using 100% market capture to estimate peak sales estimate in a highly competitive industry - it is beyond me. Adjusting the market capture data to be in alignment with the current trends in CAR T therapy, and using more modest market penetration figures, more realistic peak sales for Azer-cel fall between $134M - $268M.

An early stage buyout will typically garner 3x peak sales, while late stage assets closer to approvals and revenues garner 5x. This puts potential buyout values between $402M - $1,341M.



As I have said before, the bags for IMU are just not there for a $370M company.

Also,I am following what the FDA is saying - CAR T therapies are dangerous. It's many of you that have your eyes closed to Azer-cel.