Why IMU is a multi multi bagger, page-31666

Since the investor update on April 16, 2025, Imugene’s share price has declined by 59%, dropping from $0.027 to $0.011 as of market close on June 25, 2025. This significant decrease reflects a persistent erosion of market confidence.

1. Lack of Transparency in Trial Data

No new data has been released for the CF33 and OnCarlytics trials, despite their ongoing status for over 18 months. Timely data releases are essential for restoring investor confidence and reversing the share price decline. Without updates or a clear timeline for data release, the market is likely to remain pessimistic. At the recent Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM), the CEO referenced data from November 6, 2023—19 months old—raising concerns about the trials’ progress.

While I lack a medical background, the prolonged absence of updates suggests potential challenges in the trial outcomes. The CEO frequently highlights a single patient’s “complete response over two years,” but critical questions remain unanswered: How many patients have been enrolled since the trials began? How many remain active? How many have discontinued due to disease progression? What is the timeline for determining the recommended dosage? Long-term investors deserve clear answers, yet the management team has not addressed these concerns.

The lack of updates fuels negative speculation. There is a risk that the VAXINIA trial could face discontinuation, similar to the CHECKVACC trial, with management potentially citing reasons such as resource prioritization or competition between OnCarlytics and VAXINIA. The OnCarlytics trial may follow a similar trajectory, further undermining investor trust. The market appears to be pricing in the potential failure of the CF33 VAXINIA study and has largely dismissed the B-Cell program (HER-VAXX & PD1-VAXX) as non-viable.

This situation leads to the perception that Imugene’s prospects hinge solely on the Azer-Cel program, described as a priority with “multiple key catalysts anticipated in the coming months” in the shareholder letter. However, the last update on Azer-Cel was on February 14, 2025—over four months ago. Investors lack critical details, such as the number of patients enrolled, the sample size required for the current phase, and the criteria for advancing to a Phase 2 registration trial. Committing to quarterly updates would demonstrate accountability and help rebuild trust.

2. Questionable Timing of Share Consolidation

The decision to pursue share consolidation during a period of weak market sentiment and a declining share price is difficult to justify. In the shareholder letter, CEO Leslie Chong stated, “This initiative will have no impact on the value of your existing shareholding.” However, the share price has fallen from $0.016 on May 28, 2025, when the consolidation was announced, to $0.011 today, clearly contradicting this claim. Given the absence of new trial data and the financial year-end tax-selling season, the timing of this move appears poorly considered. A more strategic approach would be to align consolidation with a positive data release to bolster investor confidence.

For a pre-revenue biotech like Imugene, share consolidation in a climate of weak sentiment often signals distress, further eroding trust. This decision raises questions about management’s understanding of market dynamics and their ability to prioritize shareholder value.

3. Management’s Communication and Credibility

The market’s loss of confidence in Imugene stems not only from the inherent challenges of cancer trials but also from management’s ineffective communication and perceived lack of credibility. Overly optimistic statements—such as “sealing Yuman thunder,” “world dominant,” “cure the cancer,” or “conduct at a lightning speed”—have created unrealistic expectations that remain unfulfilled, damaging trust. A more measured, transparent approach to communication would better align with investor expectations.

If the VAXINIA trial faces challenges, such as CF33 underperforming against cancer cell spread, management should communicate these issues openly. Shareholders understand the risks of biotech trials and would value candor over prolonged silence. Withholding data or citing concerns about “not interrupting trials” only fuels speculation and distrust.

As shareholders, we acknowledge the complexities of developing novel cancer therapies. However, the current crisis of confidence is driven by management’s failure to provide timely, transparent updates and realistic guidance. Investors bear the financial risks of Imugene’s endeavors, while the management team receives substantial compensation. We are not seeking guarantees of success but rather clear, honest communication about trial progress, setbacks, and strategic decisions.

Based on the recent investor update webinar and EGM, the lack of substantive updates suggests that the share price decline will persist, further disappointing investors. To restore confidence, Imugene’s management must prioritize transparency, commit to regular updates, and align strategic decisions with shareholder interests.