Hi @fourdollars
In reply to your post in the charting thread here as I'd rather not contribute to derailing the topic any more than I have. I'll reply in order of your points. Bear in mind that my strength is TA and there are far better responses to FA than what I can give, however I'll provide my views as you haven't seen it addressed your well written post to me. Your points in purple.
Firstly, thankyou for your kinds words. For the record I don't feel I've done anything to justify the undue praise that comes my way at times, I just like to share what I know. You have mentioned on several occasions:
1. that while you can identify technical SP targets, you can't be certain of the timing; and
As far as I'm concerned, technically or fundamentally, nothing can be timed accurately without a specific date and time(for example we know that there will be a AGM on xx date). But much more when we are waiting on medical trials in a covid world. Timing in TA is not TA, but rather a practice of things that ought not be delved into. 2. for the SP to hit the technical targets, FA (in the form of positive announcements) is required.
The first technical target is a daily or weekly close above 0.495, the second is the 0.65 zone. In my opinion we won't need any news to reach these, we are already on our way there. I believe that we could potentially get to 0.74 without news on the right momentum, but it's probably a really strong level that will need news to break through quickly. Any targets higher than that, and probably 0.74 as well will need news, keeping in mind that my TA targets go to $2.85. So why the criticism of bobadah who is effectively making that point? My criticism was less about the TA comment, although I completely disagree with what he said about the price drifting lower without news for the above reasons, and wanted to know what reasons he had, if any, to back up the comment. My criticism was more about his comment on "LC's August fiasco". And it still seems to me that it's the dumbest comment of the week which is a pretty big prize with some of the muppets that have been posting here recently.
fiasco /fɪˈaskəʊ/ noun
a complete failure, especially a ludicrous or humiliating one. Seriously?
1)LC said in an interview that there would be PFS Data delivered in August. On 01 Sept, LC updated the market via an announcement with PFS. Is the fiasco that she was 1 day late or is there something else I'm missing, because it appears to me that Leslie has done exactly what she said.
2) In another interview she said it would be prudent to release the (I think?) top line data[final PFS?] with the final OS data next year. So I am expecting final PFS Data on all patients with the OS data, just as LC said she would. Why wouldn't we all be expecting that? Her-Vaxx
People who invest in biotech that expect not to be holding for long term, as in years and years, have not done their research. I'm hoping to hold until near the end of the patent life, and I knew that when I bought in. Most trials fail at or before phase II. Most trials are relatively small, and keep in mind that "only 14 patients have been treated" is a result of the IDMC cutting it short. I have seen people who think this is a negative because of this and that, and I think they have rocks in their head. Do you understand, that literally the longer we wait for the final data the better it is? And I do mean that in a very literal sense. If we had the final OS data a year ago, that would mean that all our trial patients were dead and our OS ain't so flash. If we don't have OS for another 3 years, then guess what, Her-Vaxx is a winner and I'll still be happy to wait.
Perhaps many investors did believe that a phase III trial would follow a phase II - but tbh I'm not the least bit concerned what some back seat armchair clinician think is the best path, I defer my confidence to the IMU scientific advisory board and the World Class team designing our trials. If anyone thinks that IMU's trials are not the best way forward, I would recommend doing a deep dive into our advisory board and directors. But again, I really couldn't care less what other investors think is best, but I've done my research and so far I've not seen a foot gone wrong. Just muppets on a stock forum.
Regarding dance cards, no evidence does not constitute a reason to suggest she used a throw away comment. I suggest people look into how long it actually takes to nail down contracts and deals of this size and natur. I've been invested in companies that they have announced "we are in specific negotiations with xxx" and the final deal is not for over 12months later. Anyone that was here for a quick buck because of a full dance card comment ought to have done DD on how long the process can take. We've already got an indication of a sponsored study for Her-Vaxx. Do you think this would be with some random company not seriously interested in getting their slice of hervaxx cake, or more likely to be one of the dance partners?
Regarding LC's contradiction, I don't believe she did. If you want to provide specific timestamps and links to show that my explanation above is not accurate, I humbly accept to be corrected.
Just out of curiosity, why are we talking about revenue? I don't believe, that other than on HC anything has been indicated about revenue coming soon. IMU can and will experience massive value growth without revenue. Revenues will come in their own time, for now the value is in the rise of the share price. Do not miss understand this as no dividends though, a dividend could come at any time with a license or sale of IP. A
Big Pharma Deal
I don't recall anyone saying that the final negotiations were with Big Pharma, just that there were negotiations and orders discussions. Having said that, we are back to the old argument of investors thinking that everything that is price sensitive demands an immediate announcement when that just is not the case. If that was the case then there wouldn't be any need for a director blackout period. I'm sorry, but your whole paragraph here just seems like you can't see the forest for the tress, I don't know how to describe it any other way.
Discounted Shares for PH's "Strategic Investors"
Its well proven that a company without a desperate need for cash is in a much stronger negotiation position than one holding out a plate. This is faulty reasoning.
Potential, potential, potential
Fully agree. I believe that, as per my previous thoughts on this, the TA looking at the larger Fundamental picture indicates that should fundamentals continue to build positively in any manner the company's value will continue to increase in proportion.
Announcements
The announcement cheat sheet in the preso is hardly complete, it contains the biggest ones up ahead, however there are many other inflection points that have the potential go drive the share price one way or another. Other posters have put up lists recently, I think PilbaraBoy did a good one most recently. Some of the announcements that can created the biggest price moves(good or bad) simply aren't there. For example and by no means complete, any of these could come at any time and make massive waves:
- Who is the sponsor of the 3rd her Vax trial?
- Who were the 3 cornerstone investors?
- The cf33 trial is potentially only 1 month long. Imagine the possibilities if efficacy is seen? What if it cures every patient it enters? All we are waiting on is the Mayo ethics committee.
- OBD of pd1 vaxx
- Efficacy updates on pd1 vaxx
- Any left field announcement, like the Japan patent, or additional acquisitions
New shareholders:
For the record, I'm still in 3, haven't sold a share, however I plan on doing so soon to convert my options. I don't care about 2)free carry, and 3)millions now could be hundreds of millions in 10 years.
If there is any single piece of evidence that new investors are still showing up, just look at the forum. The bigger the exposure, the more who will want in. Asx200 is likely and that will attract even more attention. I don't think attracting new money is a challenge.
Thankyou again for your reply, this is just my thoughts and I don't expect anyone to value them any more more than yours. I see myself as ever the optimist and I see much of your comments as pessimistic, however I place both in the bounds of realistic expectations. Somewhere in the middle is how it is. At the end of it all, we each have to be responsible for our own decisions and one way or another another time will reveal everything. The question is will we be here for it?
(20min delay)