“Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go now?”
Close to a quarter of the stocks traded each day are traded by what we call day traders. Their day comprises of one finger on the buy button, the other on the sell. Often decisions are made based upon chart analysis with an eye on moving day averages, minute, five minute and hourly buy and sell candles. Day traders focus on what we call technical analysis, wherein they evaluate stocks and identify trading opportunities in price trends and patterns seen on charts. It’s either green or red and often heaven knows, “Should I stay or should I go?”
The decision whether to buy or sell for longer term investors depends more upon what we would call the fundamental analysis of each particular stock. Longer term investors consider two types of fundamental analysis, qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative recognises the company’s existing assets including goodwill and takes into account market conditions, brand value, and the company’s overall performance. To the contrary, quantitative analysis is statistically driven. Fundamental analysis is employed by investors to understand and ultimately determine the fair market value of a company. In doing so investors look at the company’s financial position taking into consideration current earnings per share and the estimated or potential future earnings of the company.
Whether you’re a trader or a long term player you then need to decide are you buying or selling, long or short, or sitting on the sidelines. At any given time large pools of investment funds are parked on the sidelines awaiting investment opportunities. And now with deposit rates climbing as high as 4% many investors see cash as a safer bet than playing in the volatile equity markets within which we operate. That said most fund and investment managers would ideally like to return EBITA of 12% p.a in their balanced investment portfolio’s over a five to seven year time frame, and therefore choose to maintain significant holdings in equities in order to realise these returns over the longer term. Many of their investments are what could be called long positions, that is invested for a long period of time, i.e, 3, 5 or even 7 years.
So are you buying or selling, long or short? By way of definition Investopedia notes short selling occurs when an investor borrows a security and sells it on the open market, planning to buy it back later for less money. Short-sellers bet on, and profit from, a drop in a security's price. This can be contrasted with long investors who want the price to go up. Shorting is a scary business isn’t though. Nerves of steel are required in that neck of the woods. Yahoo Finance posted today that a recent rally in Tesla shares (TSLA) in the US has meant some serious pain for short-sellers who had enjoyed a successful spring betting spree against the electric carmaker. Short-sellers betting against Tesla lost at least $1 billion on Thursday alone, according to data from S3 Partners, as the Tesla stock rallied 10% following the company's latest quarterly report. Likewise betting against Amazon hasn’t proved too fruitful for them either. So how many Imugene (IMU) stocks are currently shorted? Well it’s approximately 390,000,000 or close 7 percent of the total shares on offer.
Investing in Imugene is not dissimilar to listening to a song by the Clash. From time to time the Imugene CEO Leslie Chong has herself been known to tease investors with “tit bit’s” of information. Insinuations, innuendo and flirting with shareholders have all formed part of her armoury as she courts a press gallery eager for information on the company’s latest developments and trials.
“It's always tease, tease, tease
You're happy when I'm on my knees
One day it's fine and next it's black
So if you want me off your back
Well, come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?”
One day shareholders anticipate news on Her Vaxx or PD1 Vaxx, the next updates on the CF33 Check Vacc or Vaxinia oncolytic virus trials, only to have their hopes dashed at 10 am when the opening bell rings for another day without an announcement. Rather than calm the nerves another cup of coffee only serves to heighten the senses and bring to the forefront yet another day on the edge of ones seat, as the question of “Should I stay or should I go?” Lingers in their mind.
Despite setbacks in early 2022 I guess one could confidently state those who have held onto Imugene (IMU) over the longer term have been rewarded. They have earnt up to and in some instances in excess of 10 times their initial investment over a five to seven year period. And given the extensive pipeline Imugene currently have in place in 2022, returns of 10 times their current investment during the next five to seven year investment period are definitely not out of the question. If one or two of the company’s drugs continue upon their road to success a company valuation of 20 to 30, or even 40 billion dollars would be reasonable compensation given the prices currently being paid for successful immunotherapy drugs (i.e., see https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/merck-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-seagen-in-nearly-40-bn-deal-report-122070701263_1.html)
Upon reflection those who have chosen to stay, as opposed to go, have been rewarded. But not all of us can wait that long, can we? My Dad keeps reminding he’s in his mid 80’s, and being a recent cancer sufferer that he may not have 5 to 7 years to wait. His sentiments aside it’s fair to say after the third cup of coffee on Monday morning many of us may even feel the need to write to Leslie and have her answer the question for us, For we really gotta know, should we stay or should we go?
I’ve started my letter. It goes something like this….
“Darling, you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here 'till the end of time
So you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?”
I’m thinking of ringing Dad and telling him to stay for the 2022 World Conference on Lung Cancer presentation by Pravin Kaumaya, until at least August 8 that is. Either way I should have a response by then.
DYOR - Opinions only - seek investment advice where necessary
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