The share price has a correlation to wholesale electricity prices. Wholesale prices are typically lower during September to December. Given the share price had a big run it was obvious it was going to retrace when wholesale prices came down. The company has repeated its forecast EBIT, so that is good news. We have to wait until the hot weather comes in January and February to see what wholesale prices eventuate.
Personally I think the share price will get back to $13. AGL share price was $14 before they bought the big generators Loy Yang A and Bayswater. They are not going to shutdown in 10 years time. That is just fanciful dreaming. Australia has very little potential for pumped storage hydro, and battery storage is very expensive and depreciation cost is high with current Lithium batteries. The cost of replacing Bayswater and Loy Yang by renewables backed by batteries is through the roof and even the Federal Government cannot afford it. Not when they are paying for new submarines.
Today's Federal government announcement could cause Eraring or Yallourn station to close, or to stop recommissioning work on Callide C to stop. I see the announcement as a benefit to AGL.
The share price has a correlation to wholesale electricity...
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Last
$11.95 |
Change
0.140(1.19%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.039B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $11.85 | $11.99 | $11.83 | $28.36M | 2.376M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 7609 | $11.94 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $11.96 | 17393 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| AGL (ASX) Chart |