I couldn't get back sooner, have been too busy with work commitments. @thaiinvest I note and respect your diligent post #27350841, so while I share a similar view of the possibilities for Ni Co and Sc miners as yourself and others here (and the "Co is the new oil" story - which I have been following for years - CLQ was my first Co Ni investment in 2014), I have a different view of what I believe are the "capital/financial realities" which management at AUZ are confronted with in the not too distant future..
I want to address some points you mentioned in your post: AUZ management have not really transformed this company, they were failing at their previous project and took AUZ into the Scandium business, now that has morphed into Co, Ni also; but the thing is at the same time there have been dozens of other Australian miners who have decided to do the same thing at the same time. From late last year to Feb this year there was a Cobalt craze amongst Australian miners (mostly of the small cap variety) which was reflected by their price during Jan, Feb and March this year, and most of them have corrected since then including AUZ.
Management at AUZ have changed the direction of the company and got hold of two really good properties at Sconi and flemington, and they have been selling more shares to get the capital to further these projects (and several others they still hold) so all the time the share register grows. This for me is simply about numbers:
AUZ $0.016 Market Cap $ 35.59m shares 2,224,375,000 Approx
ARL $0.855 $ 61.12m 75,000,000
CLQ $0.955 $563.7m 563,700,000
AUZ already have 4 times as many shares out there as CLQ ,and the share price is $0.016, if you multiply that by 60 times you get exactly $0.96. As holders of AUZ (and I am one) that is the problem, the numbers look challenging for AUZ and as s/holders we will get diluted significantly more........our profit potential here. Looking at the numbers above ARL look like very good value to me (I do hold some), but the numbers speak for themselves (and that's the great thing about numbers), look at them and compare the relative values. Maybe AUZ could do a share consolidation, say 10 to 1, which would be 222,437,500 shares @ $0.16 per share, but bottom line, the Market Cap would remain the same and therefore relative value. And the market understands what those numbers mean.
By the way, I should also say here I think CLQ, ARL and AUZ have the best resources at present, for me AUZ is a bit more of a gamble than the other two.
I hope Benjamin Bell comes back from his latest trip (paid by holders) with some good news (great news would be even better), but those people he will be negotiating with are hard nosed business people and they will be fully across AUZ finances.
Certainly AUZ are sitting on 2 excellent properties with great potential, but we get nowhere without a lot of $$$$. As well as dilution AUZ will have go into significant debt (is anyone here aware of what happened with LYC - if you're not do some research) or they will quite possibly do the JV thing which will dilute significantly again. My point here is whilst AUZ are sitting on great strategic commodities, but they can't do anything without a lot of other peoples money, so Ben Bells' negotiating position is very much tempered by that reality.
@teddy re the HPAL treatment circuit, do you really think that RF & CLQ will pay one dollar more than they have to (they already got 2 autoclaves on the cheap from Vale), but the deal is: CLQ will need to raise over $900m (CLQ Pre DFS 9/2016) to build their mine, plant and all other related costs to get Syerston up and running. The only difference (vis a vis CLQ to AUZ) will be CLQ's Resin In Pulp part of the refining circuit which will enable them to refine at a substantial cost saving to competitors. RF is very well known worldwide for his mining acumen and success. We know AUZ are planning to go with the HPAL circuit for processing, and their plant throughput would have to in the same league as Syerston to be economic, so costs won't be the same but they will be somewhat similar.
Something ARL is doing differently, is their approach to processing their Co and Ni, will possibly be via Atmospheric Acid Leach which will save a lot of money on what a HPAL plant would cost, but I was surprised today to read (in CLQ Pre DFS) that the actual cost of the HPAL plant at Syerston will be $229m, it is the total cost of doing everything at Syerston that will cost AUD$900m
So please take note of my sentiment and position re AUZ, however my main concern here is dilution and what management are going to have to give up to get the $$$$, and to do both Sconi and Flemington..... they're dreaming. Maybe they will pull it off, and I would be wrong (and happy to be so) because, of course we make more money. However, I still think that AUZ won't make me the money CLQ (or ARL) has or will.......time will tell. All IMHO and GLTAH
mc
AUZ Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)