Disclaimer. These are my options and interpretations, for discussion purposes only. No advice is intended or given.
Well, some may regard it as scaremongering, but unless innovative methods of generating energy are developed, the world economy is heading for the rocks. Its about "peak energy" of traditional methods of producing energy.
Why is "peak energy" a problem? With the danger of oversimplification it means that we are at or near the maximum rate at which the world can exploit traditional energy resources from the the likes of oil, gas, and coal. Even if we didn't face an environmental problem from the use of carbon based energy resources, I believe that we are rapidly reaching a stage of shortages of these resources.
So, while energy demand is accelerating due to developing economies like China and India, the rate at which traditional energy can be harvested is peaking and likely to decline afterwards.
For example,we are probably close to point at which we cannot produce oil any faster. The reason: oil fields are getting older. When fields are young we can produce oil from them easier and faster than we can when they get old. In addition, the rate of usage is well above the rate of new discoveries. According to information that I have been able to find, the combined gas and oil peak will take place between 2010 and 2020 and then decline. Coal could peak a little later at round about 2025. Even if these figures are out by decades the point is that there is little prospect of dramatic increases in production of resources to meet anticipated rising demand.
So what are the alternatives?
One candidate is nuclear energy, but uranium is a limited resource and likely to experience its own peak at some stage during this centenary. I believe that nuclear energy is a very useful stop gap form of energy, but no more.
The picture looks grim, but is it? I don't believe that it is. Rather, I believe we are in a period which presents huge opportunities. Where do the opportunities lie? I believe that they lie in renewable energy resources. Some of these are:
Solar. A huge amount of energy arrives from the sun everyday, and technology is being developed in leaps and bounds.
Wind. We know how to harvest wind so its also promising.
Marine. Probably not as advanced as solar and wind but some companies are working on it.
Hydroelectric. Good source, but limited by number of suitable new sites.
Geothermal. This type of energy is associated with the intersection of tectonic plates. We now know that subterranean heat is available almost anywhere. Granted, some site are better than others.
And others, either not mentioned or to be developed in the future.
Will there be an outright winner? I believe that future energy will come from a variety of sources. Geothermal energy's distinctive advantages are that it is widespread, cheap, and reliable for a continuous supply. Also, it does not rely on weather conditions. The first geothermal energy site of the industrial age, opened in Lardarello, Italy in 1904 is still operational. It took a bomb in the Second World War to force an interruption.
Am I saying, that only renewable energy sources are worth looking at for investment purposes? No, no absolutely not. There is a huge infrastructure and investment centred on traditional energy sources, and we are not faced with switching it all off one day and switching on renewable energy the following day. I believe that huge amounts of traditional resources will be used for some time to come, but these will be insufficient to meet demand.
In summary I'm going for geothermal energy with companies that either have or are developing the necessary expertise. The thought of investing in companies that are playing their part in saving the planet and lining my wallet, makes me feel good.
I am hoping that PAX meets these aspirations.
And Pax is Peace in Latin! Yep, I know its no important. Just thought I would throw it in.
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