To save you reading 7 years' worth of psi81 posts on CTP (dear...

To save you reading 7 years' worth of psi81 posts on CTP (dear God, has it really been that long?!) here's the summary.

For the existing reserves certified to date - no, fraccing not required. Some reservoirs might benefit from a frac to improve flow rate and thus NPV but since it's already developed anyway the most cost-effective solution is probably just to turn on the taps and flow.

For the Stairway 2C resources that were recently tested that CTP plans to upgrade to 2P - it will probably be variable. Some reservoirs are capable of flowing >1 MMscfd unstimulated, as announced recently. Some reservoirs may need fracturing to flow at worthwhile rates. If fraccing is banned they may need to explore other technologies such as horizontal legs kicking off from existing vertical wellbores. In my experience this could be a blessing in disguise as horizontals often perform better than vertical fracs anyway.

For the greenfields stuff like Ooraminna - it depends on the degree of natural fracturing. If there are enough fractures a horizontal well alone might do it. If there aren't and it's a true tight gas deposit then a horizontal plus fraccing would likely be required.

Overall, I see little threat to CTP's current 2P reserves from the upcoming ban. It may slow the progression of 2P upgrades that we are anticipating from the Stairway, but there are other solutions, albeit likely more expensive ones.

Ultimately, a fraccing ban will be a big drag on exploration investment in the NT because the onshore reservoirs are generally tight and a combination of horizontal wells and shale-style fracs will likely be necessary to develop them. But it will be a few years yet before that sort of development will be necessary and in the meantime CTP could potentially benefit as they will have pretty much the only onshore gas reserves that are capable of filling the NGP without needing fraccing.

Hopefully by then this anti-fraccing stupidity will have blown itself out.