@jackfisher1, the rising bond rate you say... Consider the real...

@jackfisher1, the rising bond rate you say... Consider the real picture and trend, not the flicker of a short term dalliance .


The whole US market which we hang off at this point in time has a falling projection in bond yield. The US dollar is falling, Covid is destroying domestic production, adding to low velocity of money despite negative prime rates and because private consumption expenditure is low as people hoard to survive. Private investment expenditure is low and stock market pumping has only assisted the top 3%. Huge overhang of debt from financial crisis of 2008 and now more government stimulus just to keep the lights on until consumers ultimately pay all the debt back. Its unsustainable. Huge balance of trade deficits where outsourcing has come back to bite them on the bum. International reserve currency status down from 90% to 60%. China hold upwards of 3 Trillion $US in reserve. Even Australia trades with China in YUAN/$AU introduced by Gillard and ratified by Hockey continues despite tensions. Globalization and outsourcing has been a disaster for the US, depriving its citizens of work. Absolute advantage may now lie with other countries who formerly relied on comparative advantage to trade. The international reserve status of the $US sustained economic growth in the States despite falling domestic production, so its a real problem now the wheels have turned backwards and there is no work at home for the masses which consequently lowers velocity of money and in turn will lower bond yields in the future despite the paper shuffle. Things need to be adjusted in terms of real GDP, not monetary value.

I think Biden will continue to revamp trade policy as Trump did as so many have been dispossessed as evidenced by the support for Trump. The only place the US investors can get yield in the future, and for that matter other overseas investors, is from emerging economies such as Australia with the commodities to meet the growing demand for decarbonization which Biden is now implementing as a growth strategy domestically. It offers the shortest lag to to move the economy forward. The worm has turned. US tradition of manufacturing is in tatters. Net immigration also away from California to Texas where much of the creativity has come from too. That will see capital inflow into this country which is close to full employment in a relative Covid free country. That looks good for BAR. The analogy is the rising real estate prices in the bush in Australia due to Covid. Paradigm shifts are occurring IMO.

Yet the Australian stock market responds to the breath of the US market on a daily basis, Can't see that lasting when the real economists position themselves. Gold being manipulated to push down contracts for physical delivery due June 28, 2021. Includes Bisel, Bank of England and Swiss banks etc. On the other hand why would gold remain low, on a low $US. That's an economic imbalance, so your low call is exaggerated and short lived (June 28?) at best IMO. We can afford to borrow cheap $US and meet payments on a rising $AU in the future and because our people are able to work, but the gold price will rise because it is dominated as a store of value overseas. The biggest populations in the world see gold as real money and there is a shift in the balance of power in the world. Gold rises in turmoil. Iceland did well in the last financial crisis. Think about that. All my opinion of course.