Why Is Share Price Tanking?, page-15

Guidance seems conservative.

US NPAT projection of 8-9m (A12-13m)

Loan book @ 212m and guided to expand net lending A60-65m FY20. The 3Q FY19 pres contained a slide for lending NPAT and ROA outlook (missing from full year pres, small red flag?), and ROA is around 12%. Plus the growth of new net lending throughout FY20, one would expect lending NPAT to be well over 25m in FY20.

Aus PDL investment apparently has bottomed out and increased investment expected in FY20. CCP have done well to maintain profitability in core PDL given drop off in investment, hopefully we can at leaat assume 45m+ NPAT from Aus/NZ PDL in FY20.

A lot of re-tendering and auctions need to go our way, confirmed investmemt is less than 25% of total investment guidance. However, this isn't that different from previous years though still a risk to NPAT.

Putting it all together and it totals A$82.5m+ for FY20 NPAT. Biggest factors being maintanence of Aus/Nz NPAT and 12%+ ROA on the loan book. I think there could be upside to both of these numbers, but particularily lending due to the 212m loan book being the standing start for FY20, and this figure (and yield) will grow over course of FY20 with new net lending.