That's the kicker, we have no idea yet. But CCP are obliged to...

That's the kicker, we have no idea yet. But CCP are obliged to inform the market if their forecasts are no longer valid. So may have to wait for any forecast downgrades. I think it could be the old "Buying the rumour selling the fact" type scenario.

With the acquisition of Baycorp, their loan book increased 64% on the previous year. And they only had a price guidance of another 5% for the rest of the year so were already gearing for the tougher environment re legislation and collection costs. And their arrangement book had already surpassed collections so this could increase dramatically for sure.

Full year NPAT was forecasted for a 45% - 65% increase so it will be interesting to see any downgrades. But I imagine most the chaff has been expelled in the last few days. This is fear driven. and unpresented so who knows how low it will go.

On the ASX thread I commented on the 24th Feb that I was selling all my holdings and putting it into govt and non-govt bonds. But in my bargain hunting I put a little skin in the game on CCP with the proviso that I wouldn't look at it for another 3 months.