Lots of theories of movement. From shorters, to evil empires trying to get Our shares by doing illicit things.
Here are what I think is doing it.
Number one is The rapid drop in the primary products sold by Lynas and the rapid drop in everything else in REE market from Concentrate down 2 % today, 19% for month. Magnets Down 10 RMB to day for most % depends on base price. Most magnets are down 25% this month. If you want proof check it out on SMM. In the next few days they will be shifting off all the data that is more than a month old so only a few days to see the whole picture.
Do not blame Elon Musk this started long before last Wednesday. On Feb, 3, NdPrO was 750 RMB WV, 627.5 RMB WV to day. 19% in 5 weeks!!!
This is here and now and its impact will be felt over the next 2 Qs no mater what happens because of the book to bill delay. A bad AR will drive the stock down and all the factors for a bad AR are already in place.
Second is the possibility of a shut down. This will have little revenue and income impact till next years SAR. Yes it is making some people nervous but most holders will wait a while, to see what happens on appeals and court, before flipping their buy / sell position.
So here is where we are.
SAR 2023 ' had slightly lower profits than SAR 2022
H2 2023 will have much lower profits and revenue than H2 2022.
H1 2024 is a toss up but even a one month shutdown or a couple of months of limited production may drop it down a lot. That's why stock is going down.
We are due for a major bounce up, known as a dead cat bounce. Look at news and if you cannot see why do not be fooled, it is just emotion to the fall.
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