A2M (ASX) Why is stage 3 IF been heavily discounted ?

Originally posted by Hokey 5771 ↑

Greetings fellow A2Mers long time no post

I've been busy on trips to the US an China this last two months , good to see A2m recover losses for some on these threads.

Tho it's still near 20 per cent of this years highs in a totally non growth 2016 year for the SP .

Lets keep it real A2M has gone nowhere in 2016 for long term holders , it's the same price it was 7 months ago .

it's done nothing in 2016 like all dairy /vitamin stocks it's been stagnating in 2016 long way of 2016 highs .

I was shocked this week as a holder to see the massive discount on A2m stage 3 at my local Coles ???

Not long ago A2 S3 was near 30 dollars a tin now it's been dumped at a staggering drop to just 21 dollars a tin a whopping 30 per cent odd dump .

That's not good if the trend continues what price could its flag ship milk powder fall to ?

The manager at my local Coles said the IF sales of A2m had slowed hence the discounting.

He also said the days of chinese buyers snapping up the IF had gone an he hardly sees daigou buyers now .

Have you guys noticed all the media reports about Daigous have dried up as well since the tax changes ?

I can't see this as been good for future margins if the price is been slashed liked this a big concern for forward EPS I would have thought products been heavily discounted .

He did say Tho A2m milk was going ok , Aldi just opened up next door to My local Coles an its selling well the milk , against farm land .

I bought back in long at 1.65 an intend to sell the day before the earnings ANN an short this big time.

I believe this will tumble after those waiting for a big spike from the ANN are let down , it will meet guidance in my opinion but no more surprises are coming in my view now .

In my view the time shorts will set up is around 2 sessions before the 24th or late the day before that's my plan anyway

It's way over priced here on a ridiculous PE which is ripe for the short side come the 24th an I can see profit takers selling this hard on a mild spike

I wouldn't book any seats for the 3 dollar party this year but Id Reserve a seat at the 1.50-1.79 party this year again

You already know what they are going to say an its run on that already the tank is low

Lots of stocks have put out solid reports only to fall hard I see this in that basket as its way over bought RSI is bursting PE insane

Photographic proof attached of the fire sale at Coles on A2 s3 an not a daigou in sight buying them hmmmmm ?????

Where have all the Daigous gone from our supermarkets ??

Expand

Come on guys, let's be factual and realistic, Hockey had got it right quite a few times and at least he is upfront and honest with his plan of trade (even though I would NOT agree to... ). I would sell if it goes beyond $2.5 and then wait to buy back around $1.8ish... (the possibilities of a pullback is very high in my opinion, thanks to people like Hockey)... I would definitely NOT short it though as market can get insane quite often. One final thing, don't underestimate the demand for IF from china, never... your most optimistic scenario is still too pessimistic... it is just who is gonna win the market share in China...

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(20min delay)
Last $6.48		Change -0.110(1.67%)		Mkt cap ! $4.684B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.59	$6.64	$6.41	$25.96M	4.015M

Come on guys, let's be factual and realistic, Hockey had got it...

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