This is minor insight ... Friday May 1 2009 At...

This is minor insight ... Friday May 1 2009
At http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8484264

Treating just 1 percent of the population in a local epidemic with Relenza rather than Tamiflu could substantially delay the emergence of resistance to Tamiflu, scientists said.

Tamiflu, which is taken as a tablet, is more convenient than Relenza, or zanamivir, which must be inhaled. Tamiflu and Relenza are the only approved drugs to which the new H1N1 strain has been found to be susceptible.

Roche and Glaxo are both expected to enjoy windfall gains from sales of their medicines, and the two companies are racing to increase production capacity to keep up with demand.

I would consider that a 1 percent of the population treatment would benefit BTA by 70 800 000,
where pop = 6740000000
per packet = $15 (hard to define on a world-wide basis)
and 7% royalty.

I have further modelling but would like better stockpiling forecasts.

Either way, BTA management seem to be holding back re best interests of shareholders and long term gains are a competitive and likely.