Why is the SFX share price so divergent from theoretical value?, page-124

Bollocks @Franpower ... never mentioned:

• long suffering holders
• those few chasing the clear air above after Mr #m got taken out
• those sitting on the sidelines that missed out after Mr 3m
• minimising risk by trying to time the de-risking run
• moaned about missing out on a stock I wasn;t and am unlikely to buy into (following it out of interest, overweight min sands elsewhere)
• slighted "real investors", whom I guess you mean those been on the ride from 20c to $1.30 back to 6c and now up to 60c again (finger clap)
• or whatever else has got up your nose

I simply don;t like unusual price action that happens after private broker roadshows when a company in in a highly sensitive risk period. Every month this Mar Qtr is critical, especially after the STA debacle and commentary from the Dec Qtrly that

"The KMS operations team is focussed upon improving mining & processing equipment availability, with power outages and pump equipment failures (mechanical seals and electrical motors) experienced during the quarter. DMU availability and throughput was also impacted by management of oversize material, consistent with the nature of the Thunderbird orebody and current mining area."... which i dug into with this post https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/72107185/single

Frankly that warning on ramp up problems could have been lifted from STA's quarterlies last year, except for the oversize problem at Coburn which has only seen the light of day via a HC poster this recently. Project value, if not share price, rises rapidly over a few months that those problems are improved and/or dispelled right. No word on Jan production and all Feb nobody was brave enough to touch the 3M seller, right.

Suddenly after Feb production reconciliation figures are in and TB has facts to demonstrate material de-risking in Feb (ie ~ 1 week post month end) it's a private broker road show, Mr 3M is wiped and yuo and Balihai are explaining to the mushrooms what all the excitement is about...

"Word is that the project is shaping up very well and both the zircon and TiO2 are likely to be high premium-grade products."
"I've heard some reports this could be achieved as early as June"
"I understand all necessary approvals for bulk shipping are in place and KMS will be bulk-loading products this month (March) as scheduled"
"nice info drop" to whatever you said (you deleted post before I looked at the thread)

If you two are prepared to write that on HC, I do wonder what tit-bits might be said over dinner and bottle of red with BSC? Whatever, i really care personally... just like to point out how important information asymmetry is to being right side of the price movement. I completely get LT holders don;t care about information asymmetry and those who buy a bargain with that information, they make their bed to lie a long time ago (like rip van winkle with SFX it sometimes seems).

So just how critical is the month of Feb, if say for arguments sake Jan was more of the same "focussed upon improving mining & processing equipment availability, power outages, pump equipment failures (mechanical seals and electrical motors), DMU availability and throughput was also impacted by management of oversize material" ??? Let's BaliHai answer that in their own words

"would be incredible and would go a long way to alleviating any concerns the market seems to have that SFX is at risk of experiencing the same commissioning issues that plague Strandline Resources (STA). I think the market is finally starting to realise that Thunderbird and Coburn are two very different projects.I suspect once the first bulk shipment has been announced and the March quarterly is released and demonstrates throughput, grade and recoveries are all in line, the price will be well north of current levels."

Whether or not brokers from the private tour were involved in Friday's Mr 3M seller buyout, or just well informed LT investors, or somebody completely random doesn;t matter. The March quarterly will have production to the end of march (another few weeks) so why wait for end of April if you got the nod KMS cracked the ramp-up code in March?

My point is all this talk on HC about "what I heard" and in person broker meetings at the same time as the volume and price jumps, at the critical time Feb's production results are at hand, smells bad to me. Maybe that's just me, I'm a weird cat no question... Meanwhile, retail and the rest of market has been left completely in the dark since operational commentary in the Dec Qtr, plus this m otherhood nothingness from the Second Shipment release 31st Jan

"Ramp up of operations at the Thunderbird mine continues to progress well, with gradual improvement in equipment and plant availability occurring in line with expectations. Further details of Thunderbird progress, including product shipments, will be contained within future (broker briefings and HC posts) quarterly reports of the Company"... bold mine obviously.

all the best to long term holders you say (meaning fk everyone else, we're all equal just LT holders are more equal than others.. of course they are )

GLTAH I say