Just to keep things clear, my last post was making 2 points.
1) investors that have previously taken a position in SFX because they liked the economic proposition of TB, are the bulk of the equity holders and they will be rewarded by a rising price and profitable project outcomes regardless of the market machinations you are referencing. I have empathy for fundamental investors that have taken a view, and much less for momentum traders that rely on micro signals to effectively make money. My point was, that in, this case, your grumblings would not be the grumblings of an investor that is sufficiently positioned in the stock.
2) I suggested that your assumptions about what the causal mechanisms were regarding the uptick in volume (from what I happen to know about the taking out of Mr 3m) are wrong.
in your follow up post you just chose to reiterate your position and call me out as bollocks - your prerogative - but also consider that you are mistaken, as well as just suspiciously pessimistic.
for your information, I previously posted an email summary that BSC sent out to some of their clients regarding the recent briefing they hosted. I then removed it realising that the email contained standard disclaimers prohibiting me from using the information other than in its intended form. The email summary was largely a replica of the summary of points in the BSC 1st March research note.
What Bali Hai posted was a summary of those points, in other words mostly a summary of the March 1st BSC note.
What seems to be ignored by you is that SFX has been guiding the market positively regarding the development of TB for the last 12-18 months. As shareholders we have been fortunate that things have panned out so beneficially over that time, including recently. I have been calling the SP cheap relative to progress for the whole time, and so a modest price movement doesn't require a conspiracy theory to be explained.
It seems that you simply can't help yourself but jump onto every opportunity (based on truth or not) to reveal your tenderness around the antics of some ASX listed management. Even if these indiscretions happen, which inevitably they do, shouldn't it be accepted as par for the course if you're going to play the course? No need to keep pointing out that there are lakes on the course.
as for the explanation for the recent move: the stock remained within a 2cent range of the seller for almost a month even given the big sell order, this suggest the stock was considered good value at these levels and a big seller did little other than cap trading volume just below the order. I can understand that to some buyers there was no reason to pay up, and so the cap remained.
Once again I return to the fact that SFX have been guiding positively in recent months and weeks and the roadshow was just a reiteration of the prevailing narrative, that in itself should be enough motivation for an investor to buy in at 53c.
you may have seen a recent LinkedIn post showing one of the female KMS staff whose job is in the operations control room. She had 4 monitors infront of her showing what appears to be live data coming from the plant. My point being that production data is dynamic and live and management are aware of production performance on an ongoing basis, this idea of yours that monthly numbers are only available a week after the month end doesn't gel with me given the specific stage of operations. Monitoring production is where all energy is at the moment. On this basis whenever I read or hear comments from management in announcements, briefing or research notes saying that things are on track, reconciling well etc, I assume they are a reflection of the current management knowledge based on what's available to them - the roadshow notes from BSC I saw suggest that what the roadshow recipients received was essentially the same information that has been broadcast by management to the general market. As I said this should be enough to encourage buying at 53c.
And if the 3m is taken out on the simple basis that an investor has taken the company guidance on face value, you would expect the price to move as it has.
SFX Price at posting:
58.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)