For those who prefer no discussion on no news to a philosophical...

For those who prefer no discussion on no news to a philosophical debate, stop reading now, you don;t have to. Insinuations of me being a trader caught short, or them being inside a top 20 insider blinkered to any criticism of bad optics on private communicants during a highly sensitive ramp-up period is fundamentally a question of perspective, not hard facts. My perspectives cynical and sceptical from 30 years following the market, also in part due to my personality. I suggest Franpower is an opposite personality type, having cultivated a more generous and positive outlook towards human nature. It's really no surprise we have always argued and disagreed on the machinations of market action and veracity of company communications. I'm sure, I hope, they understand this is just another playfight between respected and friendly posters...

Part of the reason I keep replying is because it irks me to see distorted arguments against my position left hanging. I've stated that brokers rarely/never sheet in their own nest by publishing sensive pers comms in reports, that's professional suicide. I watched the Jan 23 BG webinar originally and didn;t consider the very early suggestion that "if all went well' FY25 would be close to nameplate production as "guidance" that full production would be achieved by end Jun'24. Firstly it factually was way too early to make such a 'guidance' and second it was delivered as an 'aspirational target' if that's what one read into it. And fine, if you want to read full nameplate by end Jun'24 then go ahead.

Fact is BSC didn;t state "SFX is guiding to full production rates by the end of the June quarter" their 1st Feb update following Dec Qrtly Webinar... this was their situation summary.

BSC investment summary changed on 1st March when their summary changed to

Sure, BSC would argue they only just interpreted BG's Late Jan optimism about FY25 being close to nameplate as "SFX is guiding to full production rates by the end of the June quarter."... but to my cynical perspective, that's a material change in broker commentary following another month of production under KMS belt. Why not say SFX is guiding to full production rates by the end of the June quarter in Feb Report/ ... after all, there has been no more Webinars since, so they would have no more information or confidence in 'guidance'

When Franpower, who a LT SFX on a geological time frame, says "guidance that June was forecast to be the first quarter of full production was made by Bruce in one of the recent zoom online briefings prior to March 1st, that's where I suspect BSC got that nugget from."... I'm not thinking Webinars (as they are actually called), when their was only a single Webinar, I thought hello, multiple zoom meetings. Clearer nomenclature would have helped all around I think. Anyway, having listened to the Jan 23 Webinar again, no... I do not think BG was 'guiding' that nameplate production would be at namplate in the June Qtr... too early, too obtuse and aspirational at best. Of course, with another month improvement under his belt, BG might be more confident and direct with such guidance in March.

So let me meet the thread hallway and agree BaliHai shot the Sheriff (Sth Atlantic leak), but he did not shoot the Deputy (guidance leak). To reiterate, my view of markets is that those with inside knowledge of production progress (huge number of people connected to site) leak directly or with string hints. I also believe ASX management in general leak market sensitive information to well connected shareholders and brokers who support the company as part of the business environment. I believe stock price action across many stocks, markets and timeframes has statistically proven that price sensitive information leaks into the market ahead of official releases. This assumption that price action reflects good/bad results down the line is the basis technical trading, because price action doesn't happen spontaneously in a vacuum for no reason. Some people believe this is a tin-foil hat conspiracy theory, that between honest management and ASIC insider trading laws the ASX is squeaky clean... each to their own.

My observation that SFX volume/price jump coincided with HC reports of market sensitive information from pers comm with management, that management just completed an east coast broker tour before that volume/price spike, that no new information had been released to the ASX since January and so why do a broker roadshow when you have nothing new to talk about, etc, all at the time of coming down the critical Mar Qtr home straight of production ramp-up which everyone on HC and BSC consider could be the defining share price turning point if ramp-up is ahead of schedule and Dec QTr production issues rectified... is a bad look. That was my simple point and I stand by it.

Don;t think i can be any clearer, or continuing to defend my subjective opinion further is worth the effort. I can explain it to you, but unfortunately i can;t understand it for you... but we can agree to disagree as Franpower says.

GLTAH