For a smart person, you are making a real meal of this. I'll walk you through it again slowly, try to keep up.
Jan, Feb and Mar are CRITICAL months for production ramp-up, especially how oversize issue play out in reality. Everyone agrees, get the ramp up to nameplate figures over Mar Qtr and it's another leg up in the share price. Lots of people including BG were confident it would work out, but the market is gun shy after similar assurances from STA were wrong and cost shareholders over $500m and counting. Not helping market confidence was a 3M sleer at 53c, who nobody would touch all Feb.
Given how material to the share price success or failure over Mar Qtr is, I suggested back in Jan that monthly updates would keep all investors and the market reasonably well informed. That's my view on continuous disclosure, to avoid those with inside knowledge either getting in or out ahead of the Mar Qtrtly in late April (nothing earlier unless things went great of course). I understand why MDs don;t want to be held to that sort of obligation, for tactical and strategic reasons, and BG chose to save all the news until April (in case it went poorly early, best to play for time and hope to announce it got better later).
BG is aware of weekly if not daily progress, and would be the first to see the reconciled monthly performance figures. I frowned upon all un-released information posted on HC in conjunction with a private broker tour in March with Feb prod'n figures locked down, especially coinciding as it did with a spike in volume and price afterwards. It looks bad imo, others may think that's just typical insider trading and fine, each to their own. Maybe the volume-price spike was coincidence, maybe not... but you agree that hitting ramp targets over Jan-Mar months is material price driver, as does everyone else. The dots join themselves.
Still with me? OK, so I'm not a fan of material good or bad news being leaked, don;t know for fact it has, but don;t like the timing coincidence. As proof that BG talks to brokers and some holders in private about what good things are happening with SFX, I quoted BaliHai and BSC examples of information that those watching the ASX for updates don;t get to hear. This upsets you, because as an inner sanctum LT holder you think it's fair and reasonable, and maybe it is for LT holders who have shown faith and held strong.
The surprise better quality of Sth Atlantic VHM and great results you and BalHai speak of is not hugely material, but my point was clealry that it proves certain holders have private conversations with Bg and get fed news not yet released to the market. That's a fact, and you know it. I also made the point that if BG was happy to tell some holders amd perhaps the rbokers about the better-than-expected Sth Atalntic results, why wouldn't he tell them, or strongly hint, that ramp-up is ahead of schedule, Feb was a gangbuster month, and he expects to maybe even hit Dec nameplate throughout by June? Answer is, he probably would and did...
In great indignation to defend my simple observation about how the market usually leaks, and how it leaks, you come back at me with this gem
"On another of your points, the guidance that June was forecast to be the first quarter of full production was made by Bruce in one of the recent zoom online briefings prior to March 1st, that's where I suspect BSC got that nugget from."Hello, private zoom online briefings (note, plural tense)... how long has that been going on pray tell? I'm looking at the ASX and don;t see any invitation to private zoom briefings?... am I the only one didn;t get an invite, or were you one of the purple circle that did?
My friend, seriously, I made a quite logical but innocuous connection between posters on HC with material info not yet released, a broker tour with Feb production performance numbers in hand, and the volume price spike immediately afterwards being smelly and not a good look. It's my style to grizzle about asymmetrical and/or misleading company releases, inside information leaking, retail mushrooms being treated like cannon fodder by those in the know... always has been, always will. I know it's not everyone's cup of tea, but information asymmetry in the ASX it's a very simple concept that's generally correct more often than not.
Maybe get off your high horse trying to defend the undefendable. BG chose to not update the market on 3 months of production until late April, which leaves the field wide open for news to leak into the market. It would look better not doing broker tours with such sensitive information in hand, holders not posting on HC exploration results not yet released, or about private zoom briefings with production updates that ordinary shareholders don;t know about (and I am one).
Cheers, GLTAH
(20min delay)
