Is oil price a Make rather than a Break from now on?
1. The EIA's P.S.R. in forex has been a wrong guidance as EIA " is incorporating the first survey based" and " much of that information is lagged". Article below.
2. Oil price did hurt every producers. Production has been down. Check the short-term outlook.
3. I read an article that said US will buy Saudi oil when price is low and US will use shale oil when price is higher.
US also used to import Saudi oil every year but I have NOT seen an oil delivery in the months of june- August.
4. At mid night Wti sits at 46.20
The colleration b/t o/g/usd is heading toward oil as the both oil and gold are defending.
Let's check tomorrow.
Is US running short of oil. Is this a big problem or a big surprise for shareholders.
Can Bru ramp up production according to prevailing market conditions?
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 31, 2015
EIA begins monthly survey-based reporting of U.S. crude oil production
With the release of today's
Petroleum Supply Monthly, EIA is incorporating the first survey-based reporting of monthly U.S. crude oil production statistics. Today's
Petroleum Supply Monthly includes estimates for June 2015 crude oil production using new survey data for 13 states and the federal Gulf of Mexico, and revises figures previously reported for January through May 2015.
EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production in June 2015 at 9.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of approximately 100,000 barrels per day from the revised May 2015 figure. The latest
Petroleum Supply Monthly includes downward revisions of 40,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for the months of January through May 2015. The largest-volume revisions include lower estimates of monthly oil production in Texas (ranging from about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day) and increases in the federal Gulf of Mexico (ranging from about 10,000 to 50,000 barrels per day).
"These survey-based estimates of U.S. oil production represent a significant improvement over our previous method of estimation" said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "Domestic oil production has become an increasingly important part of energy supply in the United States, and this change in data collection gives the country a better way to assess the contribution of this resource."
The expanded "Monthly Crude Oil, Lease Condensate, and Natural Gas Production Report" survey collects monthly oil production data from a sample of operators of oil and gas wells in 15 individual states and the federal Gulf of Mexico; production from all remaining states and the federal Pacific is reported collectively in an "other states" category. The states and regions individually surveyed include Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, and the federal Gulf of Mexico.
Revised survey-based crude oil production estimates were not provided at this time for two states included in the expanded survey, Oklahoma and West Virginia, because EIA has not completed validation of the new estimates for those states. EIA anticipates revising estimates for these states in the next few months.
Estimates of U.S. oil production by EIA have been based in the past on tax and other production data obtained directly from state agencies. Given the timetable for EIA’s data products, much of that information is lagged and incomplete at the time of initial publication. For several states, the time from a particular month's originally reported production volume to when that same month's reporting could be considered final (i.e., with no or very minimal further revisions) is several months to well over a year. The survey-based approach improves regional estimates by representing well over 90% of oil production in the United States. A detailed comparison of estimates using the expanded survey data and using the previous methodology for the 13 states is provided on the
Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production webpage.
Crude oil production data collected on the expanded survey are used as inputs to several EIA products, including the
Petroleum Supply Monthly and widely followed forecasts such as the
Short-Term Energy Outlook and the
Annual Energy Outlook. Crude oil production data continue to be available in its prior locations on EIA's data pages and will also be presented on EIA's
Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production webpage alongside natural gas data from the expanded operator survey. Later in 2015, EIA will include estimates of monthly crude oil production by density, as measured by API gravity, for the individually surveyed states and the federal Gulf of Mexico.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in the product and press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the
BY GREG GUENTHNER
NEW POSTED
SEPTEMBER 1, 2015
Up 25% in 3 Days! Here's How to Play Oil's Dramatic Bounce
“How low can oil go?”
That’s the question all the worrywarts in the mainstream media were gurgling as oil broke below $40 last week. Their answer? Plenty lower. Maybe even down to $10.
So what happened?
Oil’s shot up like a missile. (Sorry, but you just have to laugh at these guys.)
So today we’re going to continue to play this crazy bounce for some sweet short-term gains that’ll put some juice into your trading account…
If you thought there was something fishy about all these predictions of oil sinking to ridiculously low levels, then go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Because we won’t be seeing $10 crude anytime soon—thanks to oil posting its biggest rally in three years to close out last week.
Black gold’s sharp U-turn horrified the short sellers who played
Press Your Luckwith their positions. Now crude’s third straight leap higher is biting them on the fanny.
Just as we discussed Friday, all eyes were on the stock market’s schizophrenia last week. But while everyone else chewed their fingers to the bone as stocks swung violently from one mood to the other, you had a clear shot at some ridiculous gains in just a few hours betting on a quick oil rebound.
That’s when the insanity started…
After the smoke cleared Monday morning, the latest round of this oversold bounce pushed crude’s 3-day gain over 25%, after dipping below $44 early on. It ripped higher by midday, gaining 6% by early afternoon. So oil’s unexpected rebound is stealing all the headlines heading into a brand new trading month.
The stock market’s performance over the same timeframe? Let’s just say it fell a tad short…
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So we got our wicked oversold bounce. Now the news cycle is beginning to help fuel crude’s run-up.
“The market turned around on two pieces of news,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Price Futures Group Inc. tells Bloomberg “The EIA cut its U.S. output estimates and OPEC says its ready to talk to others about cutting output.”
There ya go…
So we have a completely unexpected pop and news that OPEC might be ready to play ball by cutting output. That’s bullish for crude, my friend. Sorry, shorties…
As I told you last week, I don’t think crude’s shooting back toward $100 this month – or even this time next year. Heck, it might need to drop a bit from here just to cool off after this monster run higher. But make no mistake: the energy sector is looking like a strong player while the rest of the market’s trapped in Purgatory.
This oil rebound will be volatile (crude is down more than 3% this morning). Traders will continue to jockey for position this week as the magnitude of the recent move sinks in. Just one more reason to expect the opposite of what the mainstream media says…
Regards,
