This is not a stock specific downside issue, however one of the hardest hit sectors has been consumer discretionary.
The issue is a general negative sentiment that has plagued the markets for probably the last 3 weeks. Inflation figures coming in hotter than expected from both the US and AUS have accelerated the downtrend. Ironically, these same inflation figures actually support a companies profitability because they have the potential to price gouge as has been seen in consumer staples like woolworths and coles. The latest retail figures showed a substantial decline in retail growth:
"Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.1% MoM in April from the previous reading of a 0.4% decline, according to the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday. The figure came in weaker than market expectations with an increase of 0.2%."This signals that the interest rates have been doing what they intended, however the latest CPI report showed an increase on AUS core inflation up 0.1% which suggests cuts are further down the line and forecasts for increases may creep in if this trend continues.
Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: "Annual inflation increased to 3.6 per cent this month, up from 3.5 per cent in March. Inflation has been relatively stable over the past five months, although this is the second month in a row where annual inflation has had a small increase.”The latest CPI also showed declines in some areas like international travel, but increases in domestic travel:
"Recreation and culture group (-0.1%) International holiday travel and accommodation (-5.9%) was the main contributor to the fall due to lower demand following the peak December holiday period. A rise in Other recreation, sport and culture (+2.9%) and Domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%) partially offset the fall.Over the past twelve months the group rose 0.2%. Other recreation, sport and culture (+4.5%) was the main contributor, partially offset by Holiday travel and accommodation (-3.9%)."
"Discretionary goods and services rose 0.5% through the quarter, and 2.9% through the year. The rise this quarter was driven by Tertiary education (+6.5%), Domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%) and Water, soft drinks and juices (+4.2%)."As CTD is corporate contracts, not really leisure, the metrics don't apply as they would for companies like WEB/HLO/FLT etc.
Internationally, airlines, which act as a proxy for general travel demand as a whole regardless of intention (tourist vs business) were actually mixed.
@SteveSage referred to American Airlines which came in lower than expected, however this was not representative of the whole market as Delta and United bucked that trend (from what I recall). American Airlines had issues with their changes to their business model which failed and ended up with one of the board leaving.
The bigger issue plaguing the markets appears to be tied to Israel - genocide context and ICC rulings as well as Russia/Ukraine now leading to new concerns of broader war if internationally donated weapons in Ukraine get used on Russian soil - leading Russia to open the battlefield to Europe...
Meanwhile US inflation remains sticky, and with all the currency debasing going on and wars being engaged/funded, hopefully history doesn't repeat itself.
While the US market has been increasing, this is limited to the top stocks of their market, while the broad scope of equities has been continually declining. The same has been replicated here locally giving a false sense of market health.
(20min delay)