Nothing wrong with your waiting. I'ts the correct approach when you have significant doubts. I'm not referring to you with this but with some people doubts can lead to buying on strength and then selling into weakness when those doubts play on emotions and fear kicks in. What does the market know that I don't? Common question which gets people to buy on strength and then sell into weakness. Recipe for continuing losses. I only buy for the long term when I'm confident enough.
As for considering the other side of the story;
I consider all sorts of possibilities. I look at higher grades, lower grades, higher recoveries, lower recoveries, 150ktpa through to 300ktpa, open pit only, open pit moving to underground, various prices of gold and AUD, varying numbers on cash costs, numbers based on just part of the current resources through to some addition to current resources.
I look at a whole range of varying possibilities on a regular basis. I do this with every stock I invest in to weigh up the risk/reward and invest where I see the better risk/reward balance. That does not guarantee success every time but it does give me a very good track record over time.
You can never have zero risk but when you look at the grades, the recoveries, the outcropping mineralisation, the very low capex, all the current work done to date and the low country risk you would have to come to the conclusion that this is very likely to be a low cost, low risk, highly profitable operation. I have researched a lot of early stage gold companies over the years and it just doesn’t get much clearer than this. Some investors have learned to worry about everything and have doubts about everything. That’s understandable but it clouds their thinking. You need to look at the available data with an open mind. It’s staring us in the face but many investors are full of doubts especially to the sector and that biases their opinion on this stock.
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