why it's hard to see interest rate rising in near term, page-2

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chukes

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10/03/18

17:09

Post #: 31663318
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Originally posted by empror ↑

While the $Aus sits in the high $0.78-0.80 range , with momentum. There is very little room for the Reserve to raise rates without killing the economy. This is why I struggle to understand how the general news media seems to be so sure interest rates will rise ? When you have so many pro growth forces working simultaneously in the US, yet inflation is virtually non existent the US dollar will continue to stay low. The $Aus will remain in it current trading range. The other factor to consider is with all this stimulus going on in US and yet inflation non existent are we seeing real growth in US ie for every $US dollar spent to stimulate a positive return on real growth $1.20 generated or are we see a negative return on US economy $US 0.50 return. The data seems to indicate the later which is why I believe the $US is trading lower as the institutional investors see this as well, adding to this the rising US debt . I can't understand at this stage why there is a belief that interest rates will rise? Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell on Friday after rallying to a one week high after the U.S. jobs report showed inflation remained weak. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.10% to 90.02 by 11:24 AM ET (16:24 GMT), after reaching a one-week high of 90.34 after the release of the jobs data. The economy added nonfarm payrolls of 313,000 in February, which was more jobs than expected, according to data released payrolls processor ADP on Friday. Hourly average earnings rose 0.1% month-on-month, below a forecast of 0.2%. The low earnings numbers eased investor concern about the possibility of rising inflation. However, the dollar was pressured by concern that the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates higher than expected. Lower interest rates encourages investors to invest in other assets besides currency. Earlier Friday, the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged and offered no new clues on when and how it might begin winding down its stimulus measures.USD/JPY was up 0.67% at 106.92, while USD/CHF fell 0.18% to 0.9494. The euro tinched higher, with EUR/USD up 0.11% at 1.2324, while GBP/USD rose 0.46% to 1.3872 Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.69% at 0.7842, while NZD/USD increased 0.37% to 0.7290.

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