Why Keating is incorrect to appease China

Originally posted by Batmansdaughter: ↑

When China attempts to take Taiwan soon, China will also declare war on Australia.

This is because China will immediately take out the two communication stations in Australia that are critical to US and our military apparatus, Pine Gap in Central Australia, and the very low frequency antenna array near Exmouth, critical for submarine communications. Without these, the US 7th Fleet, stationed in Japan since WW2 and the principle peace keeper today in the Western Pacific, is further at risk. China sent a spy ship as far south as Exmouth last year to gather information on the antenna array. It is also critical for communications to the US airforce and naval base in Diego Garcia, situated in the central Indian Ocean, which is a key component of the US military in this sector of the globe.

China has written in their English Newspaper that their missiles can reach Australia and will do so if we interfere with the Taiwan question.https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222899.shtml. Also, Australia is part of the international fleet patrolling the South China Sea, (SCS) and China has already stated that this action is an act of war. The point is, that when war starts in the Taiwan Straights, it is coming straight to Australia too. Australian ships in the SCS will join other allies in assisting defending Taiwan, but personally, I fear a Pearl Harbour event on the 7th Fleet.

China's hypersonic anti-ship missile, YJ-21, are specifically designed to kill aircraft carriers. This is why the US Generals have advised that they will not be sending another Fleet to assist. The 7th Fleet is just one fleet within close reach of the combined forces of the entire Chinese military, greatly outnumbered and outgunned. In my view, the US will unfortunately be defeated in rapid time, leaving China free to do what they will.

The war on the ground in Taiwan will take longer, and costs thousands of lives, mostly Taiwanese, but there is little we can do about that once the the strong arm of the US in the Western Pacific is nuetralized.

When Australia is at war with China in the SCS, all Chinese owned assetts in Australia return to the Commonwealth, which include over a 100 billion dollars of investment, covering 2% of the Australian land mass. This ownership will no longer belong to China, a fact that will make China turn on Australia. This will become China's principle excuse to invade Australia, a point that most Australians are unaware. Many Australians believe that China have no reason to invade Australia as they already own a considerable fortune here. Rather though, it is this massive investment that will bring China's military here to defend their legally bought assetts.

Without the 7th Fleet keeping China within its territory, China will immediately expand and invade Australia by placing as many tropps as necessary, say 100 000, in our nothern half at key positions, and in record time. Australia is a prime target for China, far more important than small islands that they have stolen and militarized already in the SCS. China considers Australia to be the aggressor, and have stated so many times in recent years, and warned us that we will 'taste the bitter pill,' when we assist the US to defend Taiwan. Most importantly though, it is the return of their assetts in Australia that will bring Chinese troops directly here, aided with a stong exaltation of a long awaited victory over Western Imperialism.

Many peolpe think that the US military is unbeatible, but one US Fleet, with minor ally assistance, cannot withstand the might of the entire Chinese military apparatus in their own backyard. Once the 7th Fleet is defeated, Chinese true ambitions will become known. China's nationalism is living in a time warp, continuosly harping back to the historical days of Western Imperialism when China suffered at the hands of earlier Western expansion. But because of the presence of the US in the Westen Pacific today, and with the aid of its allies patrolling the SCS, China still believes that they suffer from the same Imperialism. Once unshackled, China then would like nothing more, other than to achieve what Japan failed at, by taking northern Australia.

This is why Australia is suddenly and dramatically beefing up our own military, especially with missiles, which will play an important defense role in the immediate future to try to fill the gaping hole in our country's defense. Never before have long range missiles been a part of our strategy, but are now suddenly what we need most. Likewise, our 2022 international airforce exercise brought the Luftwaffe and Dutch airforce here for the first time, arriving within 24 hours with a midflight refuel over India, just to make a point. But Australia will need more than a few foreign jets and our own military to defend northern Australia.

The fact that Australia has now realized the potential of a possible invasion and is responding accordingly, the real question is, will our closing of the defense gap hasten Chinese ambitions to fulfill their expansion plans.

In 1939 before WW2 break out, if you had suggested that Germany would take Paris within six weeks, you would have been laughed off the continent. Likewise, if you had informed the British that Singapore would quickly fall to the Japanese, you would have been locked up in an asylum.

Laugh if you wish that Australia is at risk of an invasion, but do not scoff at the idea that China has the ability and the ambition to do so without first cconsidering that everything they do and say these days is conducive to do so.

Maybe Pauk Keating has some ideas about how we can defend ourselves other than withdrawing from our international efforts to contain China's military. Surely the years leading up to WW2 should be his lesson in not how to do it.

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all sounds very interesting with some plausible bits BUT ..... falls at the first hurdle because China is far from ready to take on the US , assuming they ever will be but I'm not discounting .

Taking Taiwan is a different scenario to a full blown battle with the US which would seem ridiculous for a couple of reasons ...one military , one economic .