Just to restate my reasons for believing stock will go down with some data. H1 2022 Revenue 314M Profits 157M From SAR 2022 PG 1 H1 2023 Revenue 370M Profits 150 M From SAR 2023 PG 1 Looking at these numbers H1 revenue went up 56M YOY. While profits went down 7 M This is always a negate for stocks People like Profits growing faster than revenue if not at lease going up the same percentage. This is why there has been a sell off. Now people on this board cheered as SP went up way more than Revenue or profits for a couple of years Instead seeing this as optimism just like Dot Com and banking stocks which did crash they thought it was normal. Now reality is starting to raise its head and stock is falling.
JMO With NdPrO prices spiraling down H2 revenue will be about the same or lower than H1. Even if they achieve NEXT rates Unlikely to be even 450 M. All changes in revenue come right off bottom line, every one on this board pointed this out when NdPrO was rising. ( they seem to forget this now) I think the numbers will be lower than what I am going to say but for a moment I will only talk about the high end of my expectations. H2 Revenue will be 400M which means profits will drop to 200 M about 50 % . if you think the drop was big after SAR what do you think this will do. Some may be built in already but most people just do not believe it could be this bad. Look at Weehawken who predicted that to day was the first day of a major change of direction after a 0.15 rise in SP.
Depending on revenue in Q3 report fall may start with that report.
Many on this board say they are long term holders lets look at a couple of examples. AMZN split adjusted they hit a high of 5.25, then dot com. they hit a low of 0.30 in late 2001 many then said they were long term holders. They had had a nice rally in 2007 reaching 4.72 but then the 8 year cycle which we have not seen since 2008 hit. Stock hit 2.09 not till October 2009 did it return to its pre crash high of 5.25. Now people love to talk about growth in the REE market. Take a look at AMZN! Exponential growth in both profits and revenue and decide if Lynas will match that. .
2008 was the banking crash. Many banks went out of business or merged. To day only a couple are 1.20 % of their pre crash price many are below.
LYC Price at posting:
$6.58 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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