Just for the hell of looking into the horizon .
After attempting to digest all the information/theories coming from posts in the last few days including my own , the most "unanswered query " in my mind , and assuming its NST with a takeover bid or a Scheme or Arrangement , is "why now"?
What has prompted NST to take this step .....when they have been in effective control for some 18 months , with a 22% shareholding ?! So reasons?:
# Board has been too slow in restarting Bronzewing , and NST need that Plant operating to mill some of their own oz's coming from Ramone and elsewhere ....well , they could have entered into a loan arrangement with EAR for $45 mill if that was the case ?
# Surging gold price --well, that's been evident for some time , and on all evidence will remain strong for quite some time --so really no changing factor here ?
# NST share price very strong , being as high as $14 now back to $11 ---so by offering shares , NST would be making the best of that Balance Sheet asset , with ( in reality) , little dilution ?
# Chinese ( and or another Canadian or Australian mid tier ) sniffing around --in all cases , they would be seeing "the potential" in EAR , not just as an explorer with big upside , but with BRONZEWING as a big 2 MILL oz plant and only 6 months and $45 mill to turn it on ...well , that has legs that an Expression of Interest has been made , which Alan Thom as the NST representative Director will have advised ?!
# In the aggressive further exploration programme that EAR started early in July , early results particularly at BRONZEWING EAST 2.5 kms from the plant , have flagged the "hello , hello " factor of what might we have here ????
May well be others , or a combination of more than one of these -----but its the last one that strikes me as being the most likely !
If it was an " expression of interest ", then surely the Directors would have just said put it in writing and we will report it to shareholders --and that of course may well be , why the halt and the ensuing Suspension . But in this day and age , a Press leak would have surely flagged it by now .
I am therefore intrigued by both why its come now , and of course the response .
An Offer of 40c in shares/cash , is a circa 60 % premium on last traded price , which is substantial .EAR Directors might get 45c if they push hard ??
If drilling news is one of the factors driving the "why now" scenario , Directors may opt to recommend "take no action " until the drilling is completed over the next few months ---in effect giving us , the shareholders , the option to sell into any price spike on the details of the change of "corporate control"being released ....and that a revised and better offer might result in the next 6 months .
Imho ---NST won't be willing to let the EAR assets go , and a substantial premium comes with that !With Bronzewing operating and a +6 years mine life of another 100k oz's per annum at a ASIC of around $a 1000 and open pit and underground probable mine life extensions , then EAR is a prize to anyone .
Interesting times --why has this happened now , and at what price do we hold 'em or fold 'em Interesting times --why has this happened now , and at what price do we hold 'em or fold 'em !
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