I'm also looking for confirmation to go long on crude What's...

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sprooker7

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20/02/16

14:13

Post #: 17072633
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Originally posted by occam ↑

firstly , on the consumption side demand is slowly increasing. If nothing else happens there will be a balance in supply and demand in less than three years. However, several other things are happening that will affect supply.
Currently there is over $550 billion in cancelled oil and gas projects , not to mention a growing number of US shale producers that have gone bust. Banks and other finaciers have lost money and will not be in a rush to lend again until the price of oil gas stabilised for at least a year. This means that the world will be deprived of the usual stream of production being supplemented with new developments . So when demand starts to rise , the increase in the price of oil will be even more dramatic than its fall.
Finally there are two other issues. Russia and the larger Opec countries have agreed not to increase production. The next step will be to reduce producion because each of these countries have massive budgets that have been decimated , especially Russia and Suadi Arabia. Then there is the unknown factor involving Isis and other groups and the possible destruction of oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

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I'm also looking for confirmation to go long on crude

What's your defonition of "soon"

Just too volatile at the moment, US inventory at all time highs, rigs at all time lows 2009 levels, what gives

The suggestion for a production freeze at all time highs does nothing for demand and supply.

We might just have to wait for an actual cut announcement or grind it out for 2 more years
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