OSL 0.00% 0.5¢ oncosil medical ltd

There are some points of comparison. They are both in the...

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    There are some points of comparison.

    They are both in the localised radiotherapy device business. That is still a nascent market. Sirtex was a technology leader and demonstrated that, in the co-operation between oncologists and interventional radiologists, it could deliver a viable clinical and financial intervention.

    Sirtex did introduce regulators to the whole radiolabelled device concept.

    But Sirtex wasn't a cheap stock for several years before it was sold, because it was earning revenue, and growing, so the PE and market valuation was always pretty high from memory.

    The big difference is that Oncosil won;t have the financial ability to fund a pivotal FDA trial for ca pancreas. Sirtex got through FDA on a very small trial a long time ago. Sirtex was selling into the USA for more than a decade.

    Like Sirtex, Oncosil will be sold to a bigger player too. However, Sirtex had no immediate ambition to sell itself until the penultimate CEO blew it up. The only question is how to make the value of Oncosil worthwhile for the shareholders in any transaction.

    FDA approval for cholangio, successful interventional radiology trials, and German or Australian reimbursement (in that order) will add significant value to the company's value to a purchaser (and to the market).

    My valuation for Oncosil is more like 10% of Sirtex's valuation at the point of their transaction, say 130 million.

    The problem is that it could hit all 3 targets (FDA, interventional radiology, national reimbursement) in 6 months, or not at all.








 
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