Why PLS and AJm always down in the naughty corner, page-20

... and I forgot to mention the POSCO downstream participation increase from 30ktpa to 40ktpa.


I have a reference to Deutsche Bank saying in June 2016, that Brines would overwhelm Hard Rock producers. Even I expected that, until I was alerted to the LiOH and China EV stories.


Last year we had Roskill announce impending expected Lithium oversupply. Then Morgan Stanley. Then WoodMac advisor groups. At the end of the year, we had Moodys come out similarly (I didn't even know they gave commodity ratings).

They predicted oversupply in 2018. Didn't happen. There was extra supply from Qinghai (which none of them predicted) but that was mainly low grade. The Chinese change in subsidies gave Lithium demand a breather, as Factories spent time retooling.

Now we have WoodMac at it again yesterday. I'm not a subscriber, so I haven't read the full article. Seems unnecessary given these advisor group's track record. Many starts, no wins.

https://www.mining-journal.com/research/news/1355262/lithium-cobalt-prices-set-to-fall-further-woodmac

I wonder if they noticed that ALL this new production is already contract sold?

The people with the most intimate knowledge of what's happening in the Lithium space are ALB and SQM and they've repositioned themselves into Oz Hard Rock.


We've all seen "Who killed the electric vehicle" and I have to wonder whose interests these "advisor groups" represent?

Perhaps in 2005 the EV autopsy showed "economics" but that doesn't apply anymore with EV battery costs approaching the USD100 per KwH.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk7ZTn9g7bY