The gap is a lot larger than that graphic suggests yoy US...

The gap is a lot larger than that graphic suggests

yoy US inflation is sbove 5%. That graphic treats
it as about 2.5%.10yr nominal yield is about 1.50% atm

it may be using a wtd month on month averaging method - if true that would mean each month above ~3% yoy CPI from now should increase the inflation component for a fair while

that kind of statistical approach I would expect to downplay short term volatility in inflation but increase duration of any shifts

ie if inflation now stayed exactly same for 12 months - the measured inflation rate wouldn’t peak until 11 months time - it would progressively ramp from 2.5 to 5%
and the 10yr tips drop from -1% to -3.5% if mom yield was unchanged