We often look to the commodity currencies for macro signals, which have been mixed lately. After rising sharply in early May, perhaps related to hawkish signals from the BoC, the CAD (plotted here inversely to the normal USDCAD so that its comparable to AUDUSD and NZDUSD) has hit a ceiling.
By contrast, the NZD has broken out above its prior trading range this week after the hawkish comments from the RBNZ.
The AUD is still seeking some direction - if the recent trend for softer iron ore prices continues, that could be down. In the end, given the importance of commodities to these economies, the recent hawkish signals from their central banks will only be maintained if high commodity prices are sustained.
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