why property prices will/ won't crash, page-56

LesPaul

"hang on a sec, this thread's about crash or no crash."

You don't think median house prices returning to 3 times income from 7 times income is a crash?

" but you raise a point about properties being sold for less than they were bought for, i'm sorry to rain on your mardi gras, but the australian property market has spoken"

Did you even look at the interview? Steven Keen is talking about long term trends spanning decades. Whereas you're citing a 3 month blip. A slight rise over 3 months is no refutation of a multi decade trend. Steven even addresses your misinterpretation of the slight rise in the interview.

"the number of sales was at an all time low before the government boosted the low end for more turn over. Low turn over suggests people are willing to hang on, grin and bear it, walk away from people expecting to buy their home for less than they paid for, "

What if they have no choice? If your mortgage and expenses cost more than you earn then eventually you'll run out of money. Last time people were grinning and bearing it, Australia had the highest rates of mortgage defaults ever, including during the 90s. You're assuming that because people managed to last 6 months with high interest/oil/etc that they can last forever. I don't think that's realistic. The longer this recession lasts, the more people will run out of money and be forced to default. Eventually, unsold inventory will build up, the media will notice, and the crash could potentially happen pretty fast from there.

"and with interest rates relieving stress during a recession i cant see a 'crash' coming,"

You're looking at the present rather than the past or the future. Just like those who said the stock market wasn't overvalued, you think the housing bubble will last forever. You never answered my question about who is going to keep buying these houses at ever greater prices? Where will the money come from?

" only some deflation in median value which across the board sits at something like 3%. and before you can say 'higher interest rates' you need to understand what inflation does to an asset class such as property."

I wonder if you understand it? Let's say the median property price is 600K today, and with 600K you can buy about 600 ounces of gold. It's quite possible that in a couple of years your house will be worth 750K in dollars, but you'll only be able to buy 300 ounces of gold with that much money. If wages and the cost of living also increase during the same period, the average Australian income may be 250K and then the ratio would have then returned to 3 as predicted by Steven Keen. Are you better off from keeping that house? Nope. In that scenario, you should have bought gold or something similar. Take the time to watch the interview. Steven Keen is no lightweight.

Z