why rudd is the great pretender

MARK LATHAM
When it comes to con jobs, nothing beats a Kevin Rudd comeback. Ever since he lost a caucus ballot 71-31 to Julia Gillard 16 months ago, Rudd has had no intention of resuming the Labor leadership in this term of Parliament.

Why would he? As a phenomenal egotist, he looks at politics through the prism of vanity. The worst thing that could happen to Rudd in 2013 is to run against Tony Abbott and lose. This would destroy his self-image and self-belief. It would also blow his status as a Labor Party martyr.

For Rudd, “saving the furniture” is not enough. To return to the leadership, he needs a guarantee of victory. Having sabotaged Gillard’s 2010 campaign and destabilised the government since then, he has created a civil war inside the ALP. The electorate cannot wait to vote out this chaotic, divided party, no matter who leads it to the polls. Rudd’s thinking is obvious: why should he take an election defeat which belongs to Gillard.

WHAT HISTORY TELLS US
History tells us Rudd often backs away from a fight. This was evident in the five Labor leadership contests since 2003 for which he advanced his candidacy but then withdrew at the last minute. As prime minister, he damaged himself irreparably with his failure to call a double dissolution in early 2010 and campaign for Labor’s ETS – another case of “Chicken Kev”.

Given the preconditions Rudd has placed on returning to the leadership, it is impossible to take his bid seriously. He has said he will not challenge for the job, he wants a caucus coronation. That is, he expects the Gillard camp to surrender unconditionally and recognise him as a unifying, consensus leader.

This is a warped version of the Stockholm Syndrome, whereby the MPs tortured by Rudd are now expected to embrace him in solidarity. After I described the former PM as “evil” on Q&A last week, a prominent Gillard supporter wanted to know why I had “gone soft on Rudd” – a measure of the feeling against him.

On Saturday The Australian newspaper quoted “a senior caucus figure close to Mr Rudd” (most likely Kevin himself) as saying: “Rudd won’t be railroaded into a divisive challenge against the Prime Minister. It will be a matter of a broad coalition from the ministry and caucus to draft him into the leadership to avoid terminal division .?.?. Rudd has made it absolutely clear he’s only interested in leading a united team into the election.”

http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_rudd_is_the_great_pretender_CNPEs6hK8IzYMk9oAXR1HI