Great write up and analysis. However, whilst I understand the...

Great write up and analysis. However, whilst I understand the broad thesis as to why this stock is cheap, I cannot get my head around how you think earnings will be stabilised or how dividends can resume. This is because based on all information, TV ad has been declining for quite some time and that the business model (both FTA and digital) is in question due to the structural shift away from TV advertising. Talk to any business and their number 1 ad is via Facebook, Google or Youtube. Sure, I understand that AFL & Cricket is a drawcard and they have these locked in for a number of years; however, if you are solely relying on Sports license which has a fixed period, is the business model sustainable going forward on a say 10-year timeframe?

The other thing that got me worried is momentum investing/trading. These days, most people don't care about fundamentals - they sell when it is on the way down and buy when it is on the way up. The way SWM has been trading shows people it is firmly on the way down, so the momentum may accelerate from here until such time when a catalyst causes it to go up again (and the trend then reverses and you got more momentum on the way up as people buy in). I believe that a low teen is possible on the stock, especially if data points toward a recession in the US and Aus (it is confirmed we have a per capita recession - the GDP figure is held up by record immigration).