Hi AllI think this may well be one of the most polarising...

Hi All

I think this may well be one of the most polarising threads we are going to have on FBR and will not doubt cop a lot of comments both positive and negative. All good, bring it on.

Firstly a disclaimer. The following comments are my opinion only and should not be relied on by any readers. You need to make your own assessment as to whether FBR shares are undervalued. I post this solely to allow debate

So, I have previously posted that I cannot understand why with all the achievements / progressions / milestones etc the company has been able to achieve, the share price is sitting at sub $0.06. My gut feel (previously expressed) leading to my analysis was that the shares are undervalued by at least 100% (ie. the shares have a value of at least $0.12).

If we set aside debate surrounding artificial market manipulation,I have been undertaking historical research, to try to establish a simplified and quick methodology to assess the fair value of the FBR shares.

I try to avoid using the words "market value" as on a strict definition the price at which the shares are current selling is essentially the market value.

So what I sought to do is to assess what the proper price should be (ie. the fair value). This was important for my own assessment as to why I should continue to hold shares in FBR.

As we have no historical earnings and are not privy to the company modelling, in assessing fair value I proceeded on the basis that the fair value of the shares should incorporate the underlying net tangible assets of the company plus a premium for anticipated future earnings.

So I prepared a simple table summarising relevant data every 6 months arriving at the following:




Let me explain some of the columns a little

Column B - Cash at Bank as per the reported financials ( I estimated Cash at Bank at 15/11/19)

Column C - Issues Shares as reported. I even incorporated at 15/11/19, the expected share issue for Performance B Shares

Column D - Vey quick calculation from the financials ( Total Assets - Total Liabilities - Capitalised Development Costs) . I had to estimate the NTA at 15/11/19

Column E - Column D / Column C

Column F - I tried to obtain the closing share price of FBR at the various specified dates (some I had to get close to the report date).

Column G - What I did here was to say how much of a premium the market was prepared to pay over the NTA of FBR at the report date. SO you will see between 31/12/16 - 31/12/18, the market was putting an average premium of about 600%. So in simple terms if the NTA per share was $0.03, the market was indicating the share price would be around $0.21 ($0.03 + $0.03 x 6). I have left out anything from 30/06/19 as this is when I believe the shares were undervalued.

Column H - What the current share price at 15/11/19 should be if the same premium as at the various reporting dates were applied.

Column I - The impact on Column H prices if the 166M Performance B shares were not issued.


Based on the above, I came to my assessment that the fair value of the FBR shares should at least be $0.105 before incorporating any additional premium for the underlying IP. I can expand on this but the wife is screaming at me to do my job and get onto the barebecue so we can eat

I'll write more later where I'll discuss the surprising lack of impact of the achieved various milestones.

Again this is my personal assessment that I share to allow debate, so readers should not rely on the above as any form of advice.

Sorry got to go run out of time to spell check etc.