We all know that with the MB SOA we have been told that CTP is in all manner of trouble with messages saying we had to prove more gas to confirm NGP, we have no cash for exploration, no one is buying, no one is lending etc etc.
We now know holes have been shot through the information put forward by RC & the company and the various posters who have tried to spruik the yes vote.
Jemna have confirmed they are going ahead with the pipeline construction, even confirmed in an announcement this week to media that the land access issues with local communities has been resolved and construction will commence in June, even despite getting rid of Mac D as the construction partner.
Jemna have also confirmed they are not reliant on CTP gas being proven further for the pipeline to go ahead, Federal Government approval would not have been given recently if Jemna still had outstanding issues.
From our own company documents, recent independent review has increased our available gas reserves as reported on p 5 of the last annual report:
"Stage 1 of Reserve Upgrade Programme completed and results certified by Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc. resulting in 240% increase in Mereenie’s Proved reserves to 62 PJ and a 22% increase in Proved and Probable reserves to 75 PJ (Central equity accounted). In addition, a 50% increase in 2C resources."
Further in the directors report as another key reference is the testing already being undertaken on the stairway at Mereenie (Not a huge amount initially but it confirms the presence of free flowing gas at the stairway - a point which has been disputed by some):
"Testing of the Stairway Sandstone at Mereenie from the previously drilled West Mereenie-15 continues free flowing gas at an average 1.1 million cubic feet per day (approximately 1.1 TJs/day) with a low nitrogen content of 2.6%."
Additionally we are seeing an increase in annual earnings with projected further increases into the future as reported by Hubbard in the chairmans report for this years AGM:
"This is the first year where Central has operated the Palm Valley, Dingo and Mereenie oil and gas fields. These three assets give Central significant benefits in optionality and risk management. The effect of this can be seen in the operating performance for the year with revenue having increased 120% from $10.3 million to $22.64 million and positive earnings before interest, depreciation and exploration expense. Growth will continue into the current financial year."
In addition we have seen a decrease in Underlying Loss and for the first time a positive EBITAX as highlighted in the annual report pp 5-6, despite working in a low value market given low oil prices and an incomplete year operating Mereenie:
"Underlying loss of $17.87 million, down from an underlying loss of $22.96 million in the prior year. The statutory loss after tax was $21.04 million, down from a statutory loss of $27.73 million in the previous financial year."
"Underlying EBITDAX positive for the first time in the Company’s history, despite low oil prices and only 10-months contribution from Mereenie."
So we have increased our gas reserve value along with proven potential for more at the stairway, we will have the pipeline to deliver gas and according to company records we are currently financially performing better than ever.
I know many of you are aware of the above as it has been commented on numerously, I just thought I would cite some of the sources of where these facts come from to refute the claims that this is just opinion. There is one thing that I want to add into the discussion, which it seems we have all forgotten to add. The issue of the outcome from the pipeline review and the possible discount discussed by RC at the AGM. I have seen this documentation discussing this but despite my searching (they are all starting to blur together), I am going to add from my first hand observation from attending the AGM in Brisbane last year. If anyone can provide a reference to an article regards any pipeline discount it would be greatly appreciated.
"RC proposed that from the pipeline review that we will see a saving in the vicinity of $2/Pj potentially adding additional profit of $70 million per year as a result of a pipeline transport discount. RC further added when summising this part of his presentation, Looking into the long term, significant profit is available to be had. It is in our control, we just need to be patient."
Which begs the question, why, given an improving position and potentially $50-60 million in gas sales annually, has the company now done an about face painting a grim picture? Particularly we could potentially add a further $70 million per year just in a transport discount.
If we (CTP) has the capacity for at least $120 million in gas sales annually with what we already have proven, backed by independant sources, on top of existing revenue expected to further improve, I do not see why we need to accept the offer from MB. I say vote NO, sure up sales through NGP, take these significant revenues, continue to explore and sure up more gas, expand sales and profits and we as existing shareholders realise the profits that the company has declared exist.
Just my own research & opinion. DYOR
Cheers
R
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