Why the hell is this price dropping, page-265

First 265 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
JayWin

3,554 Posts.

413

10/12/18

19:58

Post #: 36811191
Share

Originally posted by alpha100 ↑

Citi has forecast sales of $21.4m for FY2019 however I think actual cash receipts (revenue) will be a bit lower than this. The September quarter revenue was $2.4m (down from $3.4m in the June quarter). I’m guessing that December quarter revenue will be around $4m and should increase on average $1m per quarter after that (obviously it will be less linear than that but I’m talking about on average), so that would give revenue for FY2019 of $17.4m. LVT has recently confirmed quarterly costs of $11m and we know that the cash balance was $32m at the end of the September quarter. So assuming and based on the above, the company’s quarterly cash balances going forward would be:
$32m
+ $4m - $11m = $25m
+ $5m - $11m = $19m
+ $6m - $11m = $14m (end of FY2019)
+ $7m - $11m = $10m
+ $8m - $11m = $7m
+ $9m - $11m = $5m
+ $10m - $11m = $4m (end of FY2020)
+ $11m - $11m = $4m (end of September quarter 2020)
So this would see them at cashflow breakeven at the end of the September quarter 2020 and would mean that the company does not need to raise funds at all as cash would build up from this point in time. I don’t actually think that it will play out that way as they will probably increase operating costs a bit as the business ramps up, but certainly the scenario above is far from impossible and illustrates that any calls for an “imminent” capital raising are unfounded.
Even if pretty much the worst case scenario unfolded and the company had to raise say $20m at $0.20 in a year or two, it wouldn’t change the company’s capital base enough to make a meaningful difference to where I see the stock in five years from now. And remember that the company has raised capital three times and each time it has been at a higher level than the previous raise, with the last one being done at $0.59. To get the next one done at $0.70 or so the stock price will need to be at $0.90 or so – I think they will achieve this or better!

Expand

That is pretty optimistic. Would be stoked if we could get here.

Also, revenue better be growing a lot quicker than that - otherwise things will get ugly!

LVT Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

WGX

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

VMT

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

DVP

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

BOE

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

GRX

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Is oil undervalued?

VMS

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

NXG

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

MGU

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

There are more pages in this discussion • 31 more messages in this thread...

First 265 Last

Add LVT (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 0.6¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $6.474M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Why the hell is this price dropping, page-265

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Is oil undervalued?

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Featured News

Featured News

Why the hell is this price dropping, page-265

Top Stories

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Is oil undervalued?

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Featured News

Featured News