@sf the fed will hike in Dec - but its nothing to do with...

@sf

the fed will hike in Dec - but its nothing to do with inflation or data. they just want to get some more gunpowder in case a recession comes along

but as ive said many times - Yellen is a known dove academically - did her phd on the preference for inflation vs cooling an economy too soon - because rate hikes always work to cool inflation - as volcker showed in the 70s. whereas economists have few useful tools to fight disinflation/deflation - as we;ve seen


i also think people talkign up super USD may still be gettign ahead of themselves

as ive been saying for past 2-3 weeks - i think the UST selloff uis being widely misintepreted - a lot of people seem to think its inflation being priced in

im not so sure. as i said a few weeks ago this trend hasd already started in august with china and saudi arabia selling out their tbills.

zerohedge today carrying a story suggesting that selling has since gotten even stronger.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ntral-banks-liquidate-record-375-billion-us-p

It just makes a lot of sense to me that China - which doesnt want exposure to US Treauries when they are about to go on a debt binge with us20trillion in debt already - has devalued the Yuan vs USD at same time it sells big Treasuries and converts them back to Yuan - gettign 5-10% more for their money, and giving them more forepower for their own internal shenanigan mgt

the huge volume drives misreading and other behaviours from other buyers - but i have a strong suspicion that the USD will fall off once China has done with this Treasury selling splurge