re: why the cheap prices
Hergerr is correct in terms of his statistics regarding the success rate of bringing a pharmaceutical to market. Many a drug has fallen by the wayside in phase III trials. On balance, If I was a holder of MBP sitting on a good profit, I would certainly be unloading at least sufficient shares to cover my purchase costs at this time.
The whole thing will come down to efficacy as I think side effects issues are relatively unlikely given the endogenous nature of the molecular fragment.
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