Why the sell off, page-34

Obviously I'm disappointed that despite such a substantial resource estimate increase, that the company was sold off immediately and not given a chance to climb (a common theme the past 12-18 months for the spec end). Clearly many were looking to treat the news as a trading opportunity and they would not have been rewarded much, if at all. I thought despite this, with the substantial upgrade released that it would clear 5c, forming a new base at a higher level.

This is now a very substantial target, on shore, with a domestic market that is crying for greater supply of gas. Even if the odds of a success here are 10% and the reward given success is likely a $1+ shareprice, then a 10% chance of a 25x return seems like a favourable opportunity to me especially when there may be the opportunity to derisk at a decent profit before the high risk stage. This obviously isn't one for the risk averse, ironically most of the people not posting favourably on companies relying on what is essentially a binary outcome (such as here), are probably more risk averse investors rather than speculators.

I'd think that with such a comprehensive data set, large and compelling targets, discoveries in the general area from the same basin (Mozambique, over the border), IMO it isn't overly unreasonable to assume that the odds here of success could be closer to 20% (I think some would say higher and possibly much higher as per the article above, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves). Obviously 20% still isn't great, but the potential reward is still clearly there and increased significantly yesterday.

What will legitimise this to the market will be a quality partner willing to fund it, this is what will show that this is a serious target worth paying attention to. Punters will back a big name in, for the time being it appears that they view the risk of Zimbabwe too high without even having a look and seeing how much it has changed and changing in recent times (but that's not to say that it's the best place to do business by any stretch though).

Hopefully the farm out partner takes place in the next 3 or so months. I'd be very disappointed if we don't have a positive outcome on this by the end of the year.