Hi all,I'm trying to understand what I am missing here - why is...

Hi all,

I'm trying to understand what I am missing here - why is the share price lower than 5.7? I'm relatively new to investing on the stock market, and this is the first time one of my investments is going through a sale process like this.

Knowing that there is a purchase going ahead in the next few months @ $5.70 minus the special dividend, and knowing the special dividend will be up to $0.20c per share fully franked, shouldn't this shares expected return be:

Worst case scenario - $0.00 special dividend, $5.70 per share sale price, total value $5.70
Best case scenario - $0.20 special dividend, fully franked, (~$0.28 per share when taking into account the franking), $5.50 per share sale price, total value $5.78.

This is anywhere between 1.7-3.2% higher than the share price.

Have I made a mistake in my math, or understanding? Or is this difference simply risk weighting of the sale not going ahead and value associated with having the cash now rather than in 2 months?