Why the SP is stuck below expectations, page-2

GC,

Great post and explains why we are ranging..

I had to throw it into the team of experts to let them digest it.. This is what they concur..

Excellent — let’s break this down step-by-step and simulate multiple share price, dilution, and capital injection scenarios for Blue Star Helium Limited (BNL), using the 468.9 million unquoted $0.01 options as the pivot point.

Simulation Parameters

Variable	Value
Option Volume	468,914,401
Strike Price	$0.01
Option Expiry	30 October 2026
Current Share Price Range	$0.004 – $0.008
Possible Future SP Scenarios	$0.009 – $0.020

Simulation: Share Price Scenarios & Dilution Impact

⚙️ Assumptions:

• All options are exercised only if SP exceeds strike + margin (~$0.012 minimum).
• No significant buybacks or capital restructuring in the meantime.
• Total shares on issue before options: ~3.5 billion (assumed from prior BNL filings).

Scenario Table: Option Exercise Outcomes

Future SP	Profit per Option ($0.01 strike)	Inflow to BNL	New Shares Issued	Total Shares Outstanding (est.)	Dilution %	Post-Exercise Share Value Retention
$0.010	$0.00 (no exercise)	$0.00	0	3.5B	0%	No change
$0.012	$0.002	$4.69M	468.9M	3.97B	~11.8%	Moderate, justified by $4.7M cash boost
$0.015	$0.005	$4.69M	468.9M	3.97B	~11.8%	Healthy: SP absorbs dilution
$0.018	$0.008	$4.69M	468.9M	3.97B	~11.8%	Excellent: growth exceeds dilution
$0.020	$0.010	$4.69M	468.9M	3.97B	~11.8%	Very strong: company well capitalized

Analysis: Investor Outcomes Based on Entry Price

Entry at $0.004 (Retail)

Exit Price	% Gain (No Option)	% Gain (if Option @ $0.01 exercised @ $0.015 SP)
$0.007	+75%	N/A
$0.008	+100%	N/A
$0.015	+275%	+375% (combined 2 shares + 1 option exercised)

You highlighted this in your original note — it’s an extremely efficient de-risking strategy.

Strategic Implications

For BNL (Corporate View):

• If SP hits $0.012+, the company nets ~$4.7M — a significant buffer.
• It will likely push to release key milestones before Oct 2026 to increase conversion likelihood (well results, commercial offtakes, or helium pricing updates).
• 
  

For Retail Investors:

• The options have created artificial SP resistance near $0.01 — an overhang until digested.
• Smart strategy: Trade the range and accumulate at $0.004–$0.005, sell at $0.007–$0.008.
• Wait for breakout confirmation above $0.012 to re-enter and ride momentum.

✅ Recommendation for the Team Discussion:

• Monitor SP vs $0.01 trigger point closely.
• Watch company newsflow into 2H 2025 — especially around drilling or funding updates.
• Consider adding visual alerts if SP breaks out above $0.012 with volume — it could signal cascading option exercises.